NBA Odds: Timberwolves (-1)
The Minnesota Timberwolves (11-42) take on the visiting Phoenix Suns (29-25) at the Target Center. The game starts at 8:00 pm ET on Friday, Feb. 20 and will air on FSN-AZ and FSN-N.
The Timberwolves lost a winnable game to the Warriors 94-91 the last time they played. Nikola Pekovic put in a solid effort despite the loss for Minnesota, recording 17 points and 13 rebounds to earn his sixth double-double of the season. The Suns, meanwhile, are coming off a 127-118 loss to the Rockets in their last outing. Eric Bledsoe had a good shooting night, leading the team with 32 points.
When considering effective field goal percentage, the Suns figure to have a substantial advantage on the offensive end. They rank fifth in the NBA in that category at 51.6%, whereas Minnesota’s bottom-tier effective field goal percentage defense ranks 30th with opponents connecting at a clip of 54.1%.
The Suns have won both matchups against the Timberwolves this season, including a 110-99 victory in their last matchup. Goran Dragic was a top performer in the victory with 21 points, five rebounds, eight assists, and one three-pointer.
Minnesota is a slight one-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is presently unavailable. The Timberwolves are looking to improve on their records of 11-42 Straight Up (SU) and 23-29-1 Against The Spread (ATS). They have gone 4-27 SU and 15-15-1 ATS against teams from the Western Conference. Minnesota is known to control the offensive glass, where they rack up an impressive 12.1 offensive rebounds per game. Phoenix has a habit of getting in foul trouble (22.1 fouls per game), so expect the Timberwolves to get a number of opportunities from the free throw line.
Across the court, Phoenix has a SU record of 29-25 and an ATS record of 27-25-2. Phoenix has been particularly bad ATS over its past ten matchups, going 3-7. They sport the fourth-ranked scoring offense in the league, averaging 105.9 points per game. Phoenix is one of the top foul-shooting teams in the league, converting .785 of their shots from the line. Switching gears to Phoenix’s defense, it averages 8.8 steals per game, good for fifth in the league. A large part of Phoenix’s game is creating turnovers and turning them into points. They are scoring 18.8 points per game off turnovers, which ranks third in the league.
Phoenix won the last meeting this season between these two teams, moving its SU record against the Timberwolves to 6-4 in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. However, the Timberwolves lead the matchup ATS with a record of 6-4. Phoenix topped the Timberwolves in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) twice over the last 10. Minnesota has never had the edge in all categories.
Predictions: SU Winner – PHX, ATS Winner – PHX
Notes
Minnesota is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games.
Minnesota is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games at home.
Minnesota is 4-19 SU in its last 23 games at home.
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix.
Minnesota is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Phoenix.
Minnesota is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Phoenix.
Phoenix is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota.
Minnesota ranks 22nd in points per game with 97.5, while Phoenix ranks 28th in points allowed with an average of 104.7 given up.
Phoenix ranks sixth in points allowed per road game (106.1 PPG), while Minnesota ranks 25th in points per home game with 96.0.
The Timberwolves have an even 6-6 record in games where they allow fewer than 100 points. The Suns don’t do well when they score under 100 points, earning a 4-13 record on the season.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have a subpar 5-36 record in games where they have allowed at least 100 points. The Phoenix Suns are 25-12 when they hit triple digits.
The Timberwolves have an offensive rating of 99.7 (ranked 25th). The Suns rank 19th for their defensive rating of 104.2.
Phoenix beats Minnesota in both possessions per game and points per possession. The Suns average 100.5 possessions and 1.053 points per possession, while the Timberwolves average 97.9 possessions with .997 points per possession.
Phoenix has an average effective field goal percentage of 51.6% (ranked fifth in the league}. Minnesota is a subpar 6-34 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
The Minnesota Timberwolves, with an assist to turnover ratio of 1.54, rank 20th in the NBA. The Phoenix Suns have a lower A/TO (1.43), ranking 26th.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league with just 41.2 per game. The Phoenix Suns average 42.5 rebounds (ranked 19th).
The Phoenix Suns rank 18th in offensive rebounding, while the Minnesota Timberwolves rank 30th in defensive rebounding.
Phoenix is one of the top teams in forced turnovers, with opponents averaging a TOV% of 15.3% (ranked eighth). Minnesota has an underachieving record of 5-17 SU this season when its TOV% reaches 15.3% or greater.
