The Dallas Mavericks (23-52) go head-to-head with the Minnesota Timberwolves (43-33) at American Airlines Center. The game will air on Fox Sports – Southwest at 8:30 p.m. ET on Friday, March 30, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 216.5 points with Minnesota opening as a 4.5-point favorite.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks Free Prediction
The Timberwolves will be hoping for similar success after defeating the Atlanta Hawks in their last game, 126-114. Minnesota’s turnover percentage was their largest strength over Atlanta. The Timberwolves had a rate of 11.6 (worse than their season average of 11.0), while the Hawks posted a mark of 18.7 (above their season average of 13.7). Minnesota was led by Karl-Anthony Towns, who was the top scorer from either team with 56 points on 19-for-32 shooting.
In the Mavericks’ last matchup, they lost to the Los Angeles Lakers, 103-93. Getting to the charity stripe was one of Los Angeles’ biggest advantages. They made 32 trips to the line, while Dallas went 19 times. With 13 points and seven rebounds, Dirk Nowitzki put together a solid performance for Dallas.
Half-court execution will be critical when a pair of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams battle. Dallas currently ranks 25th in possessions per game (97.7) and Minnesota is 21st (98.2).
Minnesota heads into the game with records of 43-33 straight up (SU) and 34-39-3 against the spread (ATS). Of the Timberwolves’ 76 games, 43 have finished over the total.
Meanwhile, Dallas is 23-52 SU and 38-37 ATS. Unlike Minnesota, games involving the Mavericks have finished under the O/U total 53.3 percent of the time.
Towns and Andrew Wiggins have been playing well over the last five games for Minnesota. Towns has averaged 20.8 points, 12.6 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game. Not to be outdone, Wiggins has recorded 19.8 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.4 steals a game during that span.
The Timberwolves have emerged victorious in all three games against the Mavericks this year, including a 97-92 victory in their last matchup. Minnesota was unable to cover as an 8-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 189 points, which was 18.5 points below the projected point total of 207.5 points. The Timberwolves made 18 of their 23 free throws (78.3 percent) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (25.0 vs. 14.3). Towns put up a double-double in the victory with 28 points and 12 rebounds.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds Pick
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Timberwolves, ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Minnesota is 15-21-2 ATS on the road with 21 overs and 17 unders.
Dallas is 18-20 ATS at home with 20 unders, 17 overs and 1 push.
Minnesota is 16-4 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Dallas is 16-11.
In games where they reach the century mark, the Timberwolves are 41-22 and the Mavericks are 17-26.
Dallas ranks fourth in three pointers attempted per game (32.5) while Minnesota ranks last (22.4).
The Timberwolves rank fourth in points in the paint per game (49.1) while the Mavericks rank 28th (38.7).
Minnesota ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (41.5) while Dallas ranks 26th (45.6).
The Timberwolves rank sixth in second chance points per game (13.6) while the Mavericks rank 29th (10.3).
Minnesota ranks eighth in points off turnovers per game (17.5) while Dallas ranks 27th (14.7).
The Timberwolves rank second in steals allowed per game (6.5) while the Mavericks rank ninth (7.3).
Minnesota ranks 24th in blocks per game (4.2) while Dallas ranks 29th (3.8).
The Timberwolves rank 22nd in fast break points allowed per game (13.1) while the Mavericks rank 26th (14.2).
Dallas ranks 18th in assists per game (22.7) while Minnesota ranks 21st in assists allowed per game (24.1).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Minnesota is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Dallas is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Timberwolves’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.0, down from 2.2 for the season.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 102.2 points per game (0.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 107.2 points per game (2.0 above their season average).
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