The Minnesota Timberwolves (29-17) head to Houston to play the Rockets (30-12) in a game that has the potential to be high-scoring. The game will air on TNT at 9:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 18, 2018.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets ATS Prediction
In the Timberwolves’ last matchup, they were topped by the Orlando Magic, 108-102. Orlando’s free throw rate was their largest advantage over Minnesota. The Magic had a rate of 0.189 (above their season average of 0.183), while the Timberwolves posted a mark of 0.092 (below their season average of 0.229). Jimmy Butler was Minnesota’s high scorer with 28 points on 11-for-22 shooting.
The Rockets were beaten by the Los Angeles Clippers in their last matchup, 113-102. Los Angeles’ 0.190 free throw rate was their largest strength over Houston, who had a mark of 0.138. The Clippers’ mark was below their season average of 0.224, while the Rockets’ was below their season average of 0.239. With 19 points, seven assists and six rebounds, Chris Paul had a solid performance for Houston.
This matchup figures to be a shootout as two of the league’s top offenses battle. Houston ranks second with 112.9 points per 100 possessions and Minnesota is third (111.2). Additionally, the Timberwolves are among the NBA’s best on the offensive backboards, ranking fifth in offensive rebounding percentage (25.0 percent). The Rockets, however, rank first in defensive rebounding percentage (81.4 percent).
Minnesota holds records of 29-17 straight up (SU) and 22-22-2 against the spread (ATS). Just over half of the Timberwolves’ games have finished over the total.
Meanwhile, Houston owns records of 30-12 SU and 20-21-1 ATS. Similarly to Minnesota, just over half of Rockets games have finished over the projected point total.
Paul and Eric Gordon have played at a high level over the last five games for Houston. Paul has averaged 26.0 points, 9.6 assists, 7.4 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game. Not to be outdone, Gordon has recorded 22.6 points, 6.0 assists and 1.2 steals a game during that span.
After the Rockets won three out of four games against the Timberwolves last season, these teams will go head-to-head for the first time this year. In the last contest, Houston won 123-118. The Rockets had a better turnover percentage (8.6 vs. 13.3) and had a better free throw rate (0.144 vs. 0.121).
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Timberwolves, ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Minnesota is 11-10-1 ATS with 11 overs and 11 unders.
Houston is 8-12-1 ATS at home with 14 overs and 7 unders.
Minnesota is 14-4 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Houston is 13-2.
When scoring more than 100 points, the Rockets are 30-9 and the Timberwolves are 27-9.
Houston ranks first in three pointers attempted per game (43.6) while Minnesota ranks 28th (22.6).
The Timberwolves rank sixth in points in the paint per game (48.0) while the Rockets rank 27th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.0).
Minnesota averages 19.0 points off turnovers per game, which ranks second in the NBA. Houston ranks 22nd in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.8).
The Timberwolves rank fourth in second chance points per game (14.2) while the Rockets rank 18th (12.1).
Minnesota ranks first in steals allowed per game (6.4) while Houston ranks 14th (7.7).
The Rockets rank 14th in fast break points per game (11.1) while the Timberwolves rank 21st in fast break points allowed per game (12.3).
Houston ranks 16th in assists per game (22.5) while Minnesota ranks 21st in assists allowed per game (23.7).
The Rockets allow the second-fewest rebounds per game (41.1) while the Timberwolves rank third (41.2).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Minnesota is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Houston is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Timberwolves’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 13.0, up from 3.9 for the season.
During their last five games, the Rockets have scored an average of 110.4 points per game (4.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 107.0 points per game (0.1 below their season average).
