The Minnesota Timberwolves (22-13) will attempt to continue their five-game winning streak against the Milwaukee Bucks (17-15) at BMO Harris Bradley Center. The game will air on Fox Sports Net Wisconsin at 8 p.m. ET on Thursday, December 28, 2017.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 213.5 points with Milwaukee set as a 2.5-point favorite.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Milwaukee Bucks Betting Prediction
In the Timberwolves’ last contest, they topped the Denver Nuggets, 128-125. Minnesota’s turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Denver. The Timberwolves had a rate of 5.5 (better than their season average of 11.8), while the Nuggets posted a mark of 7.9. Minnesota was lifted by Jimmy Butler, who was the top scorer from either team with 39 points on 10-for-20 shooting.
The Bucks lost to the Chicago Bulls in their last outing, 115-106. Chicago’s turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Milwaukee. The Bulls had a rate of 5.0 (better than their season average of 12.1), while the Bucks posted a mark of 15.4 (above their season average of 12.0). Giannis Antetokounmpo had a solid performance for Milwaukee, leading both teams in scoring with 28 points on 11-for-17 shooting.
Half-court execution will be at a premium when two of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams face off. Milwaukee ranks 23rd in possessions per game (97.2) and Minnesota is 21st (98.3). Additionally, the Timberwolves’ fourth-ranked offense (offensive efficiency of 110.9) will attempt to take advantage of the Bucks’ 23rd-ranked defense (defensive efficiency of 108.1).
Minnesota is 22-13 straight up (SU), but they are just 15-17-2 against the spread (ATS). Of the Timberwolves’ 34 games with betting action, 19 have finished over the total.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee owns records of 17-15 SU and 13-14-5 ATS. Much like Minnesota, games including the Bucks also tend to finish over the projected point total (65.6 percent).
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Butler (25.4 points, 4.2 assists and 1.8 steals) has been great for the Timberwolves while Eric Bledsoe (19.4 points, 5.2 assists and 1.2 steals) has contributed greatly to the Bucks.
After splitting two games last season, these teams will meet for the first time this year. The Bucks won the most recent game 102-95. The Bucks had a better turnover percentage (9.1 vs. 11.7) and had a better free throw rate (0.250 vs. 0.198).
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Milwaukee Bucks Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Minnesota is 10-6-1 ATS with 11 overs and 6 unders.
Milwaukee is 6-8-3 ATS at home with 10 overs, 6 unders and 1 push.
Minnesota is 9-2 when they allow below 100 points, while Milwaukee is 6-2.
The Bucks are 14-9 when they score above 100 points, while the Timberwolves are 20-8.
Minnesota ranks sixth in second chance points per game (14.3) while Milwaukee ranks last (9.5).
The Bucks rank first in fast break points allowed per game (6.8) while the Timberwolves rank 25th (13.5).
Milwaukee ranks sixth in blocks per game (5.3) while Minnesota ranks 25th (4.0).
The Bucks rank seventh in points in the paint per game (46.4) while the Timberwolves rank 23rd in points allowed in the paint per game (45.5).
Milwaukee ranks first in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.4) while Minnesota ranks 15th (16.6).
The Bucks rank 13th in assists allowed per game (22.0) while the Timberwolves rank 26th (24.5).
Minnesota ranks 21st in rebounds per game (41.7) while Milwaukee ranks last (38.6).
The Timberwolves rank fourth in steals per game (8.8) while the Bucks rank ninth (8.3).
Milwaukee ranks 24th in three pointers attempted per game (25.1) while Minnesota ranks 28th (23.1).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Minnesota is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Milwaukee is 2-1-2 ATS with 5 overs over their last five games.
The Timberwolves’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.6, up from 2.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 110.2 points per game (5.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 112.2 points per game (6.4 above their season average).
