The Minnesota Timberwolves (32-21) head to Toronto to take on the Raptors (33-15) in a matchup that pits outstanding offense against superb defense. The game can be seen on The Sports Network at 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 30, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 218 points with Toronto opening as a 5.5-point favorite.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Toronto Raptors ATS Prediction
In the Timberwolves’ last game, they were defeated by the Atlanta Hawks, 105-100. Atlanta’s offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over Minnesota. The Hawks had a rate of 22.2 (below their season average of 22.8), while the Timberwolves posted a mark of 16.3 (below their season average of 25.4). Minnesota’s Karl-Anthony Towns put together a solid performance, contributing 15 points and 13 rebounds.
The Raptors beat the Los Angeles Lakers in their last outing, 123-111. Toronto’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Los Angeles. The Raptors had a rate of 0.565 (above their season average of 0.529), while the Lakers posted a mark of 0.478. Fred VanVleet was the top scorer from either team with 25 points on 9-for-13 shooting.
Toronto could have their way on the offensive side of the ball as their prolific offense faces off against one of the NBA’s worst defenses. The Raptors currently rank fifth in offensive efficiency, while Minnesota ranks 24th in defensive efficiency. Moreover, the Timberwolves are among the league’s best at getting to the line, ranking third in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.228). The Raptors, meanhwile, rank 26th at keeping opponents off the charity stripe with an opponents’ FTA rate of 0.218.
Minnesota holds records of 32-21 straight up (SU) and 25-24-3 against the spread (ATS). A little over half of the Timberwolves’ games have finished over the total.
Meanwhile, Toronto is 33-15 SU and 26-22 ATS. Much like Minnesota, games involving the Raptors have finished over the projected point total 52.1 percent of the time.
Andrew Wiggins has averaged 24.8 points over the last five games for Minnesota.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. Kyle Lowry led both teams with 40 points in the first matchup, in which the Raptors lost 115-109, unable to cover as 2-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 224 points, which was 9.5 points above the projected point total of 214.5 points. The Timberwolves knocked down 32 of their 42 free throws (76.2 percent) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (35.7 vs. 21.6).
Minnesota Timberwolves at Toronto Raptors Betting Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Timberwolves, ATS Winner – Timberwolves, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Minnesota is 12-12-2 ATS with 14 overs and 12 unders.
At home, Toronto is 12-10 ATS with 11 overs and 11 unders.
Minnesota is 15-4 when they allow under 100 points, while Toronto is 15-5.
When reaching the century mark, the Timberwolves are 30-12 and the Raptors are 30-8.
Minnesota ranks second in second chance points per game (14.5) while Toronto ranks 28th in second chance points allowed per game (13.7).
The Raptors rank fifth in three pointers attempted per game (31.8) while the Timberwolves rank 28th (22.2).
Toronto ranks second in blocks per game (6.1) while Minnesota ranks 21st (4.2).
The Raptors average 13.9 fast break points per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The Timberwolves rank 24th in fast break points allowed per game (13.3).
Toronto ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (48.3) while Minnesota ranks 21st in points allowed in the paint per game (45.6).
The Raptors rank 11th in assists per game (22.7) while the Timberwolves rank 23rd in assists allowed per game (24.1).
Minnesota ranks first in steals allowed per game (6.4) while Toronto ranks 10th (7.3).
The Timberwolves rank fourth in rebounds allowed per game (41.2) while the Raptors rank 12th (42.7).
Minnesota averages 18.7 points off turnovers per game, which ranks second in the NBA. Toronto ranks seventh in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.1).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, Minnesota is 3-1-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Toronto is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Timberwolves have been outscored by an average of 1.0 point in their last five games. On the season, Minnesota has defeated opponents by an average of 3.1 points.
During their last five games, the Raptors have scored an average of 103.8 points per game (7.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 99.8 points per game (4.0 below their season average).
