Phil Hughes (7-6, 4.27 ERA) and Wei-Yin Chen (4-4, 2.84 ERA) start in the first of a three-game series between the Minnesota Twins (43-39) and the Baltimore Orioles (43-39) at Target Field. Action begins at 8:10 p.m. ET on Monday, Jul. 6 and can be seen on MASN2 and FSN-N.
Hughes is 8-5 with a 4.67 ERA in his appearances against the Orioles, and goes up against a good Baltimore offense which is batting .257 this season. Brian Dozier (.260, 62 Rs, 16 HRs, 40 RBIs, 7 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday. Against the Twins, Chen is 3-1 with a 3.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 20 strikeouts. Jimmy Paredes (.311, 36 Rs, 10 HRs, 38 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one run.
Baltimore is a narrow -107 favorite over Minnesota. According to the oddsmakers, the Over/Under (O/U) is currently seven runs. The Twins have an overall money line of +1,341 and a record as the underdog of 36-31. The Twins are the top team in the AL at limiting walks to their opponents, allowing only 2.5 walks per game so far this season.
In games where it is the favorite, Baltimore has a 26-18 record and an overall money line of +161. The Orioles can change the game with one swing of the bat, ranking fifth in the league with 99 home runs.
The Twins have a great 10-5 record at home (18-10 overall) against left-handed starting pitchers, which is what they’ll be facing when Chen takes the mound. Hughes (RHP) will be on the hill against the Orioles, who have a 32-31 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – BAL, O/U – Over
Notes
The Twins managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Orioles who are coming in with a 14-8 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Orioles are 5-27. The Twins have a 7-35 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 23rd in home runs, Minnesota has hit 66 this season. Baltimore ranks fifth with 99 home runs.
Minnesota and Baltimore both rank in the top 10 of the league in hits. Minnesota sits at 10th with 8.37 hits per game and Baltimore ranks seventh with 8.56.
Ranking 22nd, Minnesota is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.694). Baltimore ranks in the top 10 at seventh with an OPS of .734.
When the Orioles allow at least one home run, they are 23-26, well-matched with the Twins who are 23-27 when allowing at least one homer.
