Trevor May (4-5, 4.26 ERA) and Jon Lester (4-5, 3.99 ERA) take the hill in the second of a three-game series between the Minnesota Twins (37-30) and the Chicago Cubs (35-30) at Target Field. The Twins won the last game 7-2 and Minnesota leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 2:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Jun. 20 and can be seen on ABC7 and FSN-N.
May pitched 5.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering three runs, striking out three and walking one in a 3-2 defeat to the Cardinals. Brian Dozier (.264, 54 Rs, 13 HRs, 32 RBIs, 5 SBs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 2 for 4 with two runs and one stolen base. Against the Twins, Lester is 3-4 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 57 strikeouts. Anthony Rizzo (.304, 39 Rs, 14 HRs, 41 RBIs, 10 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Cubs, going 2 for 4 yesterday with two runs, two home runs, and two RBIs.
Chicago takes on Minnesota as a -127 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at eight runs. The Twins have an overall money line of +1,303 and a record as the underdog of 30-24. In interleague play, they have had a solid season, earning 5-2 and 5-4 records as the underdog and SU respectively. The Twins have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 2.5 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.1 runs per game. Minnesota’s pitchers put it all together when National League teams are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game drops to 3.3 against NL teams, compared to its 4.1 season average.
In games where it is the favorite, Chicago has a 22-16 record and an overall money line of +246. Chicago is 2-2 as the favorite and 3-4 SU against interleague opponents. Offensively, the Cubs have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.2 runs per game by averaging 5.4 during that stretch. Chicago’s pitching staff is one of the top in the NL, with a 3.57 ERA. When it comes to issuing walks, the Cubs have the fourth-fewest in the NL with an average of just 2.6 walks allowed per game. The Cubs have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 8.8 strikeouts per game.
The Twins have the edge in the season series, 1-0. The Twins have a great 8-4 record at home (16-9 overall) against left-handed starting pitchers, which is what they’ll be facing when Lester takes the mound. May (RHP) will be on the hill against the Cubs, who have a 30-25 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – CHC, O/U – Over
Notes
Minnesota has won 42% (10-14) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Chicago has won 52% (15-14) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Twins are coming into this game after allowing zero walks during their last outing. The Cubs have a 1-2 record when opponents give up that many walks.
It looks like the Twins have a slight leg up on the Cubs, as the Twins have won their last three games while the Cubs have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Cubs are 23-3. The Twins have a 25-1 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 16th, Chicago sits in the bottom half of the league in runs, scoring 272 this season. Minnesota ranks in the top half at 14th with 279.
Ranking 24th, Minnesota is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 162 this season. Chicago ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 217.
The Twins are 27-10 when they hit at least one home run. The Cubs perform similarly when they hit one or more homers with a 23-15 record.
