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Minnesota Twins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview 05/08/18

Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The Minnesota Twins will face the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. The game gets underway 1:15 p.m. ET and Fox Sports North will showcase this interleague matchup.

Minnesota Twins at St. Louis Cardinals Odds

St. Louis (-190) is favored against Minnesota (+180) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this game at 8 runs. The odds for betting on the game’s total stand at -115 for the over and -105 for the under. Gamblers can also bet on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds standing at -125 for the Twins +1.5 runs and +105 for the Cardinals -1.5 runs.

The Cardinals are 20-13 SU and 17-15 ATS. They’ve gained 5.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 1.1 units against the spread (ATS). St. Louis has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. On the other hand, the Twins have gone 14-17 SU this year and are 17-13 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 5.0 units for moneyline gamblers over the early part of the year, but have gained 1.7 units ATS. Minnesota’s covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven.

Cardinals games have a 14-16-2 over/under record so far in 2018. Minnesota has an over/under record of 17-13.

Right-hander Jake Odorizzi is the probable starter for Minnesota. Odorizzi is 2-2 with a 4.10 ERA and 35 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Cardinals this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-0, 7.36 ERA and four strikeouts across 3.2 innings).

The Cardinals will send righty Carlos Martinez (3-1, 1.40 ERA) to the mound. Martinez has 45 strikeouts and 19 walks to his credit, as well as a 1.04 WHIP. Martinez did not record a start against the Twins in 2017.

As a unit, St. Louis’ pitching staff has yielded 3.7 runs per game overall in 2018. The team’s starting pitching staff has a 3.29 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 8.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.42 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 8.3 K/9.

The St. Louis offense is putting up 4.5 runs per outing, including 3.2 per game over its last 10 games and 3.6 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .205/.330/.349 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.

The Cardinals’ batters have been led by outfielder Tommy Pham and shortstop Paul DeJong. Pham is slashing .323/.442/.535 with five home runs, 14 RBIs, 24 runs and seven stolen bases, while DeJong’s line sits at .258/.341/.492 with seven homers, 14 RBIs and 19 runs.

Pham did not do very well against righty pitching at home last season. In 183 such plate appearances, he slashed .257/.377/.355 (compared to his overall season line of .306/.411/.520).

For the visitors, Minnesota’s pitchers have allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 4.36 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 9.22 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 5.42, along with a K-per-9 of 9.75.

Twins hitters have slashed .243/.319/.415 on their way to 4.4 runs scored per game this season, including 4.8 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 6.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (4-1 SU).

Minnesota’s hitters have been led by shortstop Eduardo Escobar and outfielder Eddie Rosario, who have combined to swat 13 home runs. Escobar is slashing .309/.366/.609 with six home runs, 18 RBIs and 22 runs scored, while Rosario (.287/.310/.557) is up to seven homers, 25 RBIs and 20 runs scored.

Compared to his overall season slash line of .290/.328/.507, Rosario did not do as well batting against righties on the road last season, putting up a slash line of only .235/.282/.380 across 195 such plate appearances.

The Twins have lost 5.5 units and are 13-11 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 14 of those games, as opposed to 10 that’ve hit the under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Cardinals have netted 1.4 units and are 10-12 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 10 of those games, compared to 10 that went under the total.

Minnesota Twins at St. Louis Cardinals Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Cardinals, ATS Winner – Twins, O/U – OVER

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Notes

Betting Notes

Minnesota has recorded 22.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 24.0 over its last five.

The Twins have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games, including seven over their last five.

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Written by GMS Previews

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