Mike Pelfrey (5-7, 4.06 ERA) and Nick Martinez (7-6, 3.91 ERA) are on the hill in the second of a three-game series between the Minnesota Twins (56-56) and the Texas Rangers (55-56) at Target Field. The Twins won the last game 3-2 and Minnesota leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 8:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Aug. 12 and can be seen on FSN and FSSW.
Pelfrey pitched 3.2 innings in his last outing, surrendering seven runs, striking out two and walking one in a 10-9 defeat to the Indians. Eddie Rosario (.274, 37 Rs, 6 HRs, 26 RBIs, 9 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday. Martinez went 5.0 innings, surrendering one run, striking out one and walking three in a 4-3 win over the Astros in his most recent start. Prince Fielder (.327, 55 Rs, 17 HRs, 66 RBIs) has been successful at the plate, going 2 for 4 yesterday.
Minnesota is a narrow -110 favorite at home against Texas. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of nine runs. The Twins have an overall money line of +960 and a record as the favorite of 12-9. Minnesota is unbeaten as the favorite and has a 2-8 SU record in its last ten outings. Minnesota’s pitching staff has been doing poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 7.2 runs per game, well above its season average of 4.5. The Twins are the top team in the AL at limiting walks to their opponents, allowing only 2.5 walks per game so far this season.
In games where it is the underdog, Texas has a 47-43 record and an overall money line of +1,584. They played solid baseball as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 5-1 record, and a 7-3 record SU. Offensively, they average 4.5 runs per game, which is good for third in the AL.
The Twins have a 34-38 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Martinez takes the mound. Pelfrey (RHP) will be on the hill against the Rangers, who have a 36-33 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – Tex, O/U – Over
Notes
Texas has won 42% (20-28) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Minnesota has won 45% (17-21) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Rangers managed to give up five walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Twins who are heading in with a 9-4 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Rangers are 43-8. The Twins have a 39-5 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 13th in runs, Minnesota has earned 468 this season. Texas ranks fifth with 495 runs.
Ranking 24th, Minnesota is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 278 this season. Texas ranks in the top half at 13th with 324.
When the Twins hit at least one home run, the team is 42-23. Texas has the same record when it hits one or more homers.
