With a victory that all but wrapped up the Packers’ season and head coach Mike McCarthy’s tenure in Green Bay, the Minnesota Vikings put their playoff hopes back on track and the odds have reflected that change. The Vikings 24-17 victory over the Packers has moved their Super Bowl odds from +2500 to +2000 overnight.
Why the +500 swing? Well, it all comes down to Minnesota’s recurring problem with the Packers and, specifically, Aaron Rodgers. Last night, thanks to a 29-of-38 for 342 yards and three touchdown performance from Kirk Cousins, Minnesota put that problem away.
The first issue that Minnesota must overcome to make those Super Bowl odds pay off is making the playoffs. At present, they’re two games behind the Chicago Bears in the NFC North and just dropped a 25-20 decision to their Chicago-based rivals two weeks ago. They’ll play again at home on the final week of the season. Is there any chance that could be for the NFC North title?
Here’s who the Vikings have left on their schedule — at New England Patriots, at Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins, at Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears.
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At 6-4-1, there’s not a lot of room for error there for Minnesota. To ensure they even make the playoffs, they really need to run the table and even then, that could just be good enough for the No. 5 seed and a road appearance in the Wild Card round.
I feel like 10 wins guarantees at least a playoff spot and Minnesota will have to play some of its best football of the season to even get there. If they fall to the Patriots next week, and they’ll be the underdog, make no mistake, that could all but end their season with the Seahawks and Bears looming.
As of right now, the Vikings are the No. 5 seed and the Washington Redskins are the No. 6. At No. 7, ready to sneak into the postseason are the Seahawks, whom the Vikings face on Dec. 10. That will pretty much be a playoff game for both teams with the loser likely watching the postseason at home.
After the Seahawks and Panthers, realistically, only the Philadelphia Eagles at 5-6 are still in the mix, regardless of what the math says. To make these odds worthwhile to you, you need to calculate Minnesota’s chances of landing in the playoffs to begin with, then basically running the table as a road dog the entire way. They would, if the current bracket holds up, have to beat the Dallas Cowboys on the road (doable), then the Los Angeles Rams on the road (not happening), then the New Orleans Saints on the road (definitely not happening). Both the Rams and the Saints have beaten the Vikings this season. Los Angeles knocked them off 38-31 and the Saints beat them 30-20.
Minnesota can score with pretty much anybody except the Rams and Saints.
You also can’t discount the Vikings historic shakiness a the kicker position. Against the Packers, kicker Dan Bailey missed two field goals that would have certainly made the victory much easier for Minnesota. Bailey is 15-of-20 on the season and that’s after taking over for Daniel Carlson who opened the year 1-for-4. I have no idea why kickers go to Minnesota to die, but they do and they usually take the Vikings’s postseason hopes with them.
