Offense meets defense when the Florida Gators (11-4, 3-0 SEC) welcome the Mississippi State Bulldogs (13-2, 1-1 SEC) to Stephen C. O’Connell Center. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 10, 2018, and will air on SEC Network.
Florida is an 8.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 143 points.
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators Betting Prediction
The Bulldogs are hoping for a better outcome after their 64-58 loss to the Ole Miss Rebels in their last contest. Ole Miss’ turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over Mississippi State. The Rebels had a rate of 8.9 (better than their season average of 14.3), while the Bulldogs posted a mark of 16.6. Aric Holman led Mississippi State in scoring with nine points on 3-for-6 shooting.
In the Gators’ last matchup, they barely escaped the Missouri Tigers, 77-75. Florida’s turnover percentage was their largest strength over Missouri. The Gators had a rate of 7.9 (better than their season average of 12.1), while the Tigers posted a mark of 16.1. With 15 points and eight rebounds, Egor Koulechov had a good performance for Florida.
This battle pits one of the NCAA’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses. Florida currently ranks 25th in offensive efficiency and Mississippi State ranks 13th in defensive efficiency.
Mississippi State has an excellent 13-2 straight up (SU) record, but they are just 3-7 against the spread (ATS). Bulldogs games have a tendency to finish under the total (70.0 percent).
Meanwhile, Florida is 11-4 SU and 7-7 ATS. Unlike Mississippi State, Gators games have typically gone over the O/U total (58.3 percent).
Chris Chiozza has averaged 15.6 points, 5.2 assists and 3.0 steals over the last five games for Florida.
After the Gators won the only game against the Bulldogs last season, 57-52, these teams will meet for the first time this year. The Gators had a much better free throw rate (0.231 vs. 0.098) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.433 vs. 0.377).
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Florida Gators Odds Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Florida, ATS Winner – Mississippi State, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Mississippi State is 0-3 ATS with 2 unders and 1 over.
Florida is 2-5 ATS at home with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Florida ranks 68th in three pointers attempted per game (24.6) while Mississippi State ranks 201st in three pointers allowed per game (24.5).
The Bulldogs rank 27th in rebounds per game (40.2) while the Gators rank 155th in rebounds allowed per game (35.9).
Mississippi State averages 6.0 blocks per game, which ranks 14th in the nation. Florida ranks 63rd in blocks allowed per game (3.1).
The Gators rank 43rd in steals per game (7.6) while the Bulldogs rank 66th (7.1).
Mississippi State ranks 35th in assists allowed per game (11.1) while Florida ranks 58th (11.9).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Mississippi State is 1-3 ATS with 3 unders and 1 over.
Florida is 2-2 ATS with 3 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Bulldogs’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.4, down from 13.2 for the season.
During their last five games, the Gators have scored an average of 77.6 points per game (5.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 67.6 points per game (5.8 below their season average).
