Iowa Hawkeyes are coming into the Outback Bowl as underdogs as they prepare to take on the No. 18 Mississippi State Bulldogs. The afternoon matchup is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 p.m. ET and ESPN2 has the TV rights.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview
In this early-week game, Mississippi State is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 7 points. The Bulldogs are also receiving -270 moneyline odds while the Hawkeyes are +210. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 44 points, and should one side can create a bunch of points in the early stages, it’ll likely generate a nice in-game betting scenario.
The betting odds have shifted a little from where they initially opened. The line opened at -6 and the game’s O/U was originally set at 44.5.
The Bulldogs are 8-4 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 3.6 units so far in 2018. They’ve been a good under bet and have recorded an O/U mark of 2-9. The Hawkeyes have gained 0.3 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 7-4-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 7-4.
The Bulldogs are 8-4 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Hawkeyes are also 8-4 SU.
Both teams enter this matchup on two-game winning streaks. The Bulldogs are coming off a resounding 35-3 win over Ole Miss on November 22. Nick Fitzgerald completed 11 passes for just 111 yards and one touchdown. Fitzgerald (117 yards on 18 rush attempts, two TDs) also led the ground attack and was complemented by Kylin Hill (108 yards on 17 carries, one TD). Deddrick Thomas (two receptions, 23 yards, one TD) and Jesse Jackson (two catches, 31 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Iowa enters this one having just earned a 31-28 win over Nebraska. Nate Stanley completed 16-of-27 passes for 152 yards and two touchdowns. Mekhi Sargent (173 rushing yards on 26 attempts, one TD) and Toren Young (83 yards on 18 carries, one TD) mounted the running game as T.J. Hockenson (five receptions, 54 yards) and Nick Easley (four catches, 29 yards) led the receiving attack in the win.
Mississippi State has run the ball on 61.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Iowa has a rush percentage of 55.4 percent. The Bulldogs have run for 226 yards per game and have 25 scores on the ground this year. The Hawkeyes are averaging 162 rushing yards per game and have 19 total rush TDs.
The Bulldogs offensive scheme has averaged 176 yards in the air overall and has 21 passing TDs so far. The Hawkeyes have put up 228 pass yards per contest and have 24 total pass scores.
Defensively, Mississippi State should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 104 yards and throw for 164 yards per game. The Iowa defense has allowed 186.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 102.8 yards per game on the ground. The Bulldogs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.08 to opponents, while the Hawkeyes have given up a 3.87 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Fitzgerald has amassed 1,488 yards on the year, and has completed 52 percent of his 235 attempts with 11 passing scores and seven interceptions. He’s got a 4.72 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 10.06 over the last two outings.
The Bulldogs will likely try to maintain the clock by feeding their running backs early and often. In addition to Nick Fitzgerald (zero receiving yards), Aeris Williams (398 rush yards, three rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Kylin Hill (691 rush yards, four rush TDs, three receiving TDs) have delivered in the Mississippi State offensive scheme.
In the hosts’ locker room, Nate Stanley has managed to complete 201-of-344 passes for 2,460 yards, 20 TDs and eight INTs. Stanley’s ANY/A sits at 6.89 for the year and 7.50 over his past two games.
The Hawkeyes also like to heavily feature their backfield. T.J. Hockenson (669 receiving yards, four TDs) has contributed lately, but Mekhi Sargent (627 rush yards, seven rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Toren Young (563 rush yards, three rush TDs, one receiving TD) have gotten a lot of touches recently.
Free Prediction: Mississippi State Bulldogs at Iowa Hawkeyes
SU Winner – Mississippi State, ATS Winner – Mississippi State, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Mississippi State defensive unit has 36 sacks on the year while Iowa has 34.
Iowa has lost six fumbles this season while Mississippi State has lost two.
The Bulldogs offense has created four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Hawkeyes have accounted for nine such plays.
The Mississippi State defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Iowa has given up five such plays.
The Mississippi State offense has created 25 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Iowa has created seven such runs.
The Bulldogs defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Hawkeyes have given up four such runs.
Mississippi State has won five of its last six games SU, with a November 10th defeat to Alabama representing the only loss over that stretch.
Mississippi State has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three games and 6.1 over its last two.
Iowa has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.7 over its past two.
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