Southeastern foes will lock horns when the Florida Gators (11-6) play the Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-9) at Stephen C. O’Connell Center. Action begins at 7:00 pm ET on Tuesday, Jan. 19 and can be seen on ESU and ES3.
The Gators enter this game hoping for similar success after topping Ole Miss 80-71 on Saturday. KeVaughn Allen was the game’s leading scorer with 27 points on 9-for-11 shooting. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after their 80-75 loss against Tennessee on Saturday. Mississippi State lost despite the best efforts of Gavin Ware, who recorded his fifth double-double of the season with 21 points and 10 rebounds.
This one isn’t expected to be close when Florida, a big 12-point favorite, takes on Mississippi State. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of 140 points. The Gators have gone 11-6 Straight Up (SU) and 9-5-1 Against The Spread (ATS). The rebounding edge goes to the Gators in this matchup, who are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 41.9 boards per game. Turning to the defensive side, it’s been a struggle for opposing teams to score on the Gators. The 64.3 points that Florida’s defense allows per game makes them the 31st-ranked defense in the country. The Gators prevent teams from making three-pointers, ranking 40th in the nation with 100 total three-pointers allowed (5.0 per game). Not making mistakes with the ball is a staple of the Florida offense, which averages just 11.1 turnovers per game.
In the other locker room, the Bulldogs have records of 9-4 ATS and 7-9 SU. The Bulldogs convert their free throws at a high percentage, ranking 31st in the nation at .739.
These conference foes will be squaring off for the first time this season. In their most recent meeting a season ago, Florida came out on top, bumping its SU record to 6-4 over Mississippi State in their most recent meetings. With a 6-4 record, the Bulldogs have the advantage ATS. Florida held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers two times, while Mississippi State was never able to do so in their most recent five games.
Predictions: SU Winner – Fla, ATS Winner – MissSt, O/U – Over
Notes
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida’s last 6 games.
Florida is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home.
Florida is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Mississippi State.
Florida is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Mississippi State.
Florida has a 3-2 SU record against other teams in the Southeastern Conference, while Mississippi State has a winless 0-4 SU record against these opponents.
Mississippi State scores just 69.4 points per away game (ranked 175th). Florida ranks 86th in points allowed at home, giving up 64.0 points.
Mississippi State beats Florida in both possessions per game and points per possession. The Bulldogs average 69.6 possessions and 1.094 points per possession, while the Gators average 68.9 possessions with 1.058 points per possession.
Florida has an average effective field goal percentage of 47.4%. Mississippi State is a poor 3-7 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
Florida ranks 98th in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.20. Mississippi State is ranked lower at 147th with an A/TO of 1.11.
Ranked 18th in the nation, Florida averages 41.9 rebounds per game. Mississippi State ranks lower at 288th with 34.1 RPG.
Mississippi State ranks 198th in offensive rebounds, while Florida ranks at 58th in defensive rebounds.
Florida averages a forced turnover percentage of 19.4% this season. When the Mississippi State Bulldogs suffer a turnover rate equal to or exceeding this, the team is winless with a 0-6 record.
