The Mississippi State Bulldogs will be at Rupp Arena to play the No. 14 Kentucky Wildcats in a Southeastern matchup. Action starts at 7:00 pm ET on Tuesday, Jan. 12 and will air on ESP and ES3.
The Wildcats were victorious over Alabama 77-61 on Saturday. Alex Poythress was the game’s leading scorer with 25 points on 8-for-10 shooting. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after their 82-68 loss to Arkansas on Saturday. Craig Sword had a team-high 21 points.
Over the last five games, Tyler Ulis has really been playing well for the Wildcats, averaging 16.6 points, 2.4 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.6 three-pointers.
Kentucky could dominate the offensive glass in this matchup, as it’s ranked seventh in the nation in OR% at 40.6%. Alternatively, Mississippi State ranks 321st in the nation on the defensive backboards with a DR% of 65.7%.
Kentucky is a heavy 16-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at 146 points. Even with a positive Straight Up (SU) record of 12-3, the Wildcats are 6-9 Against The Spread (ATS) in those games. Kentucky has consistently been near the top of the nation in terms of field goal percentage, currently ranking 45th in the nation with a FG% of .473. Kentucky is known to control the offensive glass, where it racks up an impressive 14.2 offensive rebounds per game. Kentucky’s three-point defense can be considered one of the best in the nation, allowing just 5.0 three-pointers per game.
Over on the other bench, Mississippi State has a SU record of 7-7 and an ATS record of 8-3. Mississippi State has done particularly well ATS over its past 10 matchups, going 6-2. The Bulldogs are shooting lights out from the foul line so far, with a .734 free throw percentage that ranks 45th in Division I.
This is the first meeting of the season for these conference foes. The last time they played, Kentucky came out on top, moving its SU record against Mississippi State to 8-2 in their most recent head-to-head meetings. The teams have an even record ATS, 5-5. Kentucky held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers three times, while Mississippi State was never able to do so in their most recent five games.
Predictions: SU Winner – Kty, ATS Winner – Kty, O/U – Over
Notes
Kentucky is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games.
Kentucky is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kentucky’s last 7 games at home.
Kentucky is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home.
Kentucky is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Mississippi State.
Kentucky is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Mississippi State.
Kentucky sits at 2-1 SU against conference rivals, while winless Mississippi State is 0-2 SU against its foes.
Mississippi State scores an average of just 76.4 points per game (ranked 121st). Kentucky ranks 80th in points allowed, giving up 66.8 points per game.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs rank 93rd for their offensive rating of 109.9. The Kentucky Wildcats have a defensive rating of 96.8 (ranked 75th).
Kentucky has an average field goal percentage of 47.3%. Mississippi State is a losing 1-4 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Kentucky Wildcats and the Mississippi State Bulldogs both rank higher in average field goal percentage when compared to their effective field goal percentages. Kentucky is 94th and 45th in the nation for eFG% and FG% respectively, while Mississippi State ranks 77th and 61st in these categories.
Kentucky ranks 27th in blocks per game with 5.4 and Mississippi State ranks 94th with 4.3 blocks per game.
Kentucky is one of the best teams in the country when it comes to offensive rebounds, ranking 19th. Mississippi State ranks just 293rd in defensive rebounds.
On average, Mississippi State forces a turnover rate of 18.2%. When Kentucky turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a stellar 6-1 record.
