The Arkansas Razorbacks battle the Mississippi State Bulldogs this week in a game that will feature the SEC’s third-leading passer, Brandon Allen (2,617 yards, 22 TDs), and second-leading passer, Dak Prescott (2,651 yards, 18 TDs). Arkansas (6-4) and Mississippi State (7-3) will both be looking to keep up their winning momentum. Each team has risen to another level as of late, with both teams having won four of their last five. The game will begin Saturday, Nov 21 at 7:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on ESPN.
In last week’s matchup, Arkansas beat LSU 31-14. Dominique Reed had a great game in the win, grabbing three passes for 83 yards and one TD. Mississippi State is hoping for a different outcome after losing big against Alabama 31-6. Fred Ross had an outstanding performance for the Bulldogs, catching eight balls for 114 yards. Donald Gray finished with 59 receiving yards on two catches.
Arkansas is a slim three-point favorite at home against the Bulldogs. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of 54 points.
With a 6-4 record both Straight Up (SU) and Against The Spread (ATS), the Razorbacks will look to improve as they head into Week 12. Over their last five games, the Razorbacks have records of 4-1 for both SU and ATS. The Razorbacks have seen an uptick in scoring recently, averaging 43 points during the last five games. They average 34.4 points per game on the season. During those five games, they have relied heavily on the run, averaging 202.0 yards on the ground. Turning to the Razorbacks defense, a few key spots could be deciding factors this week. Expect the Bulldogs to have a tough time running against the 20th-ranked Razorbacks run defense, which gives up 122.4 yards per game on the ground. Arkansas can top most teams in terms of time of possession. The Razorbacks have an average time of possession of 34:43 per game for fifth-highest in the nation.
In the other locker room, the Bulldogs have 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS records this season. In the previous five games, Mississippi State has a record of 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. Chances are Mississippi State will continue to rely on its passing attack, where its 297.1 passing yards per game ranks 21st in the nation. Moving on to the Mississippi State defense, there are certain areas where it measures up well against the Razorbacks. The Razorbacks are matching up with Mississippi State’s defense at an inopportune time. Over the last five games, Mississippi State’s opponents have only averaged 191.2 yards through the air.
Predictions: SU Winner – Arkansas, ATS Winner – Arkansas, O/U – Over
Notes
Arkansas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
Arkansas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home.
Arkansas is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home.
Arkansas is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing Mississippi State.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arkansas’s last 8 games when playing Mississippi State.
Arkansas is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Mississippi State.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arkansas’s last 5 games when playing at home against Mississippi State.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Mississippi State’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Arkansas.
Mississippi State is 7-0 SU when leading at the start of the 4th quarter this season. Arkansas is 5-1 SU when carrying a lead into the fourth quarter.
Arkansas is only 1-2) SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet 3-1 SU when losing the turnover battle.
According to overall FBS team rankings, Arkansas is rated higher in the ground game on both sides of the ball. Its 31st-ranked rushing attack will face the 78th-ranked run defense of Mississippi State, while its 20th-ranked run defense will look to contain the 101st-ranked rushing game of the Bulldogs.
