This week’s game between the Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-1) and the Auburn Tigers (2-1) has the makings of a pivotal SEC game. The SEC’s second-leading passer, Dak Prescott (799 yards, 5 TDs) will be key to the outcome of this contest. Players will take the field Saturday, Sep 26 at 7:30 p.m. ET and it will air on the ESP2.
Auburn lost big against LSU 45-21 last week. D’haquille Williams had a solid outing in the loss, totaling two receptions for 19 yards and one TD. Mississippi State is hoping for a similar result to last week’s performance when they won easily over Northwestern State 62-13 in its matchup. Donald Gray had a big game for the Bulldogs, registering four receptions for 140 yards and one TD. Gabe Myles added 58 yards and a TD on two receptions.
Auburn is a slim three-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at 56 points.
Heading into Week 4 of the college football season, the Tigers are 2-1 SU, but winless Against The Spread (ATS).
Across the field, the Bulldogs have a record of 2-1 both ATS and SU. The Bulldogs are usually effective at running the ball, owning the 19th-best yards per carry average in the nation at 5.8. Switching gears to the Mississippi State defense, there are certain areas where it measures up well against the Tigers. The secondary for the Bulldogs will be looking to shut down the weak passing attack of the Tigers, which ranks 113th in the nation with an average of 157.7 passing yards per game. The Bulldogs may take advantage of Auburn’s habit of taking it easy on their opponents down the stretch. The Tigers allow 10.3 points in the final 15 minutes of regulation.
Predictions: SU Winner – Mississippi State, ATS Winner – Mississippi State, O/U – Over
Notes
Auburn is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games.
Auburn is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games.
Auburn is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home.
Auburn is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Auburn’s last 15 games at home.
Auburn is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing Mississippi State.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Auburn’s last 5 games when playing Mississippi State.
Auburn is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Mississippi State.
Both teams are 2-0 SU when leading at the end of the third quarter.
According to national passing ranks, Mississippi State has an advantage on both offense and defense. Its passing attack (ranked 21st in the nation) will face the 32nd-ranked pass defense of Auburn, while its 26th-ranked pass defense will look to limit the 113th-ranked passing game of the Tigers.
The Auburn rushing attack is ranked 78th nationally, while the Mississippi State run defense is only ranked 81st. The Bulldogs running game is ranked 76th, compared to the 124th-ranked rush defense of the Tigers.
Auburn has given up 29.7 points per game this year, which is ranked 83rd in the country. Mississippi State has put up 38.3 points per contest this year and is ranked 28th in FBS.
