The (24) Mississippi State Bulldogs look to rebound in (15) Auburn after a horrendous performance last week in Athens against the Georgia Bulldogs. The SEC Conference match-up is slated to start on Saturday, September 30th at 6:00 p.m. EST. The terrific weekend game can be seen on ESPN. After the terrible showing in Georgia, line setters have the Tigers as a gaudy -9 point favorite. The contest’s total opened at 49 and is now up to 50.5.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are coming into this game on the heels of a 31-3 letdown in Athens last weekend. After an impressive performance at home the prior weekend against the LSU Tigers, Mississippi State laid an egg. Georgia had their way with them from the opening kick-off until the final whistle blew. The Bulldogs couldn’t get anywhere offensively and struggled to stop the Georgia ground game.
The Auburn Tigers are settling back in at home after they went on the road and demolished the Missouri Tigers 51-14. The War Eagle got it going early on with their rushing attack and never let up. In all, the Tigers rushed for well over 250 yards and also controlled the clock for almost ten more minutes. Honestly, this one wasn’t even close.
(24) Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-1)
The Bulldogs were flat out awful at both ends of the field in their blowout road loss to 11th ranked Georgia last Saturday. Unfortunately, it was quarterback Nick Fitzgerald’s worst performance of the year. On the night, he only completed 14 passes for 83 measly yards and no touchdowns.
The junior signal-caller was lights out in his first three victories. Altogether, he has now collected 626 passing yards with seven touchdowns and three picks. Fitzgerald can also be a threat when he decides to get out of the pocket and run. The talented leader also has scrambled for 287 and added another five scores to his resume’.
The improving running back Aeris Williams could not find any room to run whatsoever. By the time the final whistle blew, he only had accumulated 24 yards on 11 carries. The junior tailback had rushed for over 100 yards in two straight games prior to the loss to Georgia. Overall, he has piled up a team-leading 360 rushing yards and one trip to the end zone.
Even the talented wideout Keith Mixon could only muster up three catches for 12 yards in the defeat. In all, he has a total of 124 yards and a touchdown. Mississippi State was able to score 37 points against a ranked LSU team in their week three win. I’m sure the Bulldogs fans are still wondering what the hell happened between the hedges. Either way, it doesn’t get any easier against another strong defensive Auburn team up next.
It was more of the same for the Mississippi State defense as they were as stagnant as the offense was. The Bulldogs defense was confused in the loss, surrendering 404 total yards which included 203 rushing yards. Conversely, their defense was effective in their first three wins and was especially sharp in the 37-7 win over LSU. They better shore up that run defense because few teams like to pound the football like the Auburn Tigers do.
(15) Auburn Tigers (3-1)
Although the Tigers didn’t set the world on fire offensively, they did manage to control the line of scrimmage and rack up plenty of yards on the ground. All told, they rushed 53 times for 263 yards and five scores.
Running back Kerryon Johnson was the beneficiary of the work from his teammates. The stout tailback found himself in the end zone five times on the day. Three other rushers carried the ball 21 times for over 170 yards in the game. Johnson had 18 totes of the rock for 84 yards of his own.
Quarterback Jarrett Stidham wasn’t asked to throw the football downfield very often but when he did he made it count. The kid under center hit 13 completions out of 17 passes for 218 yards and a touchdown. Apparently, the play action pass was there for the taking with all of the production coming from the running game. Running back Kamryn Pettway, who has rushed for 202 yards in two games, will also see action in this contest.
Wide receiver Will Hastings made two catches for 59 yards in the triumph. He now leads the team with 210 receiving yards and a score. The Tigers expect all of their receivers to block ferociously and open the edges for their talented runners.
As expected, the Auburn defense was outstanding in the win over a Missouri team that is expected to score points. In fact, they only allowed 340 total yards and were able to force four turnovers. The Tigers vaunted defense is looking very stingy, ranking 7th in the nation giving in to only 11 points per contest. Furthermore, they are fourth in the country, holding opposing offenses to 236 yards per contest.
Prediction
Well here is the chance for the Mississippi State Bulldogs to prove to themselves that they can bounce back from an embarrassing defeat. To do so, they will have to once again go on the road and stop a very good running team in the Auburn Tigers. If so, they have a shot to keep this one close and pull it out in the end.
Auburn will look to stymie the Bulldogs offense by taking control in the trenches and keep a tight wrap on quarterback Nick Fitzgerald. They also will try to keep him on the sidelines by punishing the Bulldog’s front seven for all four of the quarters. After what Georgia did, this isn’t an overwhelming undertaking.
I do think that we will see a much better performance from Nick Fitzgerald and company in this game. At the very least, the Mississippi State offensive line has to hold its own for that to happen on Saturday. Either way, I still don’t think anybody on the offense is in for a very big day. The Tigers defense is just too good.
With that being said, I think the over 50.5 points is the best play to make. Sure, Auburn will get some scores, but the Bulldogs defense can hold them into the mid 20’s. The Tigers defense probably won’t let the Bulldogs even reach the 20 point mark.
Skip the nine-point line in this game, as the Auburn defense is really that good. Plus, they will be playing at home and that is bad news if the Bulldogs fall behind early. Just take the under 50.5 and cheer for both defenses to do what they are fully capable of in this SEC Conference match-up. #moneytreesgrow
Trends
The Bulldogs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in September.
The Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS loss.
The Under is 4-1 in the Bulldogs last five games overall.
The Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight conference games.
The Tigers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
The Under is 4-0 in the Tigers last four home games.
