The No. 22 Mississippi State Bulldogs (-10) aren’t traveling far to face their SEC nemesis Ole Miss Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium at Hollingsworth Field. Fans can catch the action live on ESPN and kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Ole Miss Rebels Betting Preview
In this Thursday Southeastern game, Mississippi State is tabbed as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 10 points. In order to take the favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently need to wager $400 to win $100 back on the Bulldogs (-400). The Rebels are getting +300 moneyline odds. Should one side finds paydirt in the early stages it would produce a solid betting scenario in-game. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 58. With the spread currently sitting at Ole Miss +10, oddsmakers are thinking this could be a 24-34 win for the Bulldogs.
Sharp bettors are siding with the Bulldogs. This opening line was initially 8.5 while the O/U was originally set at 58.5.
The Bulldogs are down 4.7 units so far and 7-4 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have recorded an O/U mark of 2-8. The Rebels are down 3.3 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 3-8 ATS and have an O/U record of 6-5.
The Bulldogs are 7-4 straight up (SU), including 3-4 SU against conference opponents. The Rebels are 5-6 SU overall and 1-6 SU in conference play.
The Bulldogs are coming off a resounding 52-6 victory over Arkansas last week. The Bulldogs defensive unit did its part in the win, limiting the Razorbacks to just 150 passing yards and 69 yards on the ground. On the offensive side, Nick Fitzgerald completed nine passes for just 127 yards and four touchdowns. Aeris Williams (104 rushing yards on 15 attempts) and the signal-caller Fitzgerald (85 yards on 14 carries, one TD) led the running attack. Justin Johnson (three receptions, 59 yards, one TD) and Williams (two catches, 52 yards, two TDs) shared the receiving duties in the win.
One week ago, Vanderbilt took care of this Ole Miss team by a score of 36-29. Jordan Ta’amu completed 32-of-52 passes for 457 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Isaiah Woullard (107 rushing yards on 16 attempts) and the signal-caller Ta’amu (10 yards on 10 carries) led the running game while A.J. Brown (nine receptions, 212 yards, one TD) and DaMarkus Lodge (nine catches, 117 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Mississippi State’s run the ball on 60.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Ole Miss has a rush percentage of 48.4 percent. The Bulldogs have produced 219 rush yards/game (including 169 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have 21 scores on the ground this year. The Rebels are averaging 176 rushing yards per game (148 in conference) and have 24 total rush TDs.
Judging by the numbers so far, it appears that the Bulldogs could have an edge in terms of effectiveness in the ground game, as their backfield has generated 5.7 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.2 to opponents. The Rebels have registered 5.0 yards per carry and allowed 5.0 YPC to opponents.
The Bulldogs offense has tallied 181 yards/game in the air overall (132 per game versus conference opposition) and has 20 passing scores so far. The Rebels have recorded a ridiculous 364 pass yards per contest (318.7 in the SEC) and have 21 total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, Mississippi State appears to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 110 rush yards and 165 pass yards per game. The Ole Miss defense has allowed 275.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 213.8 yards per game on the ground. The Bulldogs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.24 to opponents, while the Rebels have given up a 7.76 ANY/A.
Offensively, Fitzgerald has amassed 1,379 passing yards on the year. He’s completed 52 percent of his 211 attempts with 14 scores through the air and seven interceptions. Fitzgerald’s got a 5.30 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 7.62 over the last two games.
We expect the Mississippi State offense to mix it up in this one. Aeris Williams (410 rushing yards, two rush TDs, 58 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown this season), Justin Johnson (219 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Nick Fitzgerald (924 rush yards, 10 rush TDs, 0 receiving yards) have all played key roles of late.
Jordan Ta’amu has completed 236-of-366 passes for 3,458 yards, 18 TDs and seven INTs for Ole Miss. His ANY/A sits at 8.64 for the year and 8.10 across his past two outings.
A.J. Brown, DaMarkus Lodge and Isaiah Woullard have combined for 773 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns as a trio the last two games.
When these two schools faced each other a year ago, Ole Miss won by a field goal 31-28.
RELATED: Week 13 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Free Pick: Mississippi State Bulldogs at Ole Miss Rebels
SU Winner – Ole Miss, ATS Winner – Ole Miss, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Mississippi State defense has sacked opposing QBs 32 times this season. Ole Miss has produced just 21 sacks.
Ole Miss has lost four fumbles in 2018 while the Mississippi State offense has let two get away.
The Bulldogs offense has produced four pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Rebels have put up 22 such plays.
The Mississippi State defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Ole Miss has given up eight such plays.
Both defenses have produced 21 rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Mississippi State offense has recorded 74 running plays of 10+ yards while Ole Miss has accounted for 63 such plays.
The Bulldogs defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Rebels have given up 17 such runs.
The Over/Under for Ole Miss’ previous outing was 73. The under cashed in the 36-29 defeat to Vanderbilt.
Over its last three matchups, Ole Miss is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Over its last three matchups, Mississippi State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Mississippi State has won four of its last five games SU, with a 24-point loss to Alabama on November 10th accounting for the only defeat over that span.
The O/U for Mississippi State’s last game was set at 48.5. The over cashed in the team’s 52-6 triumph over Arkansas.
Mississippi State has averaged 5.5 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.3 over its last two.
Ole Miss has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 3.1 over its past two.
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