While the Cleveland Indians are awaiting the winner of the Minnesota Twins and New York Yankees game, the third-place Boston Red Sox will face off against the second-place Houston Astros in the American League Division Series. The Red Sox finished this MLB season with a 93-69 record (.574) and a +117 run differential while the Astros surpassed the 100-win mark, posting a 101-61 record (.623) and a +196 run differential. Let’s dive into why each team might win the series.
Why The Red Sox Might Win The Series
The Red Sox, after acquiring Chris Sale during the offseason, seemed prime for a postseason berth – they didn’t disappoint. The Red Sox will likely be going with a four-man rotation, starting with Cy Young candidate Sale. On the season, Sale is 17-8 with a 2.90 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 0.97 WHIP, and 12.9 K/9 while posting a 0.14:1 BB:K ratio and a 1.01 HR/9 rate. The Red Sox will likely wrap up their postseason rotation with Drew Pomeranz and two of Rick Porcello, Doug Fister, and Eduardo Rodriguez. Here are the season stats for these starting pitchers.
Drew Pomeranz: 17-6 with a 3.32 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 0.40:1 BB:K ratio, and 0.99 HR/9 rate
Rick Porcello: 11-17 with a 4.65 ERA, 4.60 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 0.27:1 BB:K ratio, and 1.68 HR/9 rate
Doug Fister: 5-9 with a 4.88 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 1.38 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 0.46:1 BB:K ratio, and 0.90 HR/9 rate
Eduardo Rodriguez: 6-7 with a 4.19 ERA, 3.97 FIP, 9.8 K/9, 0.33:1 BB:K ratio, and 1.25 HR/9 rate
The only standout is Sale and the Red Sox’s remaining starters must perform at a much higher level if they’re going to stand a chance. However, the Red Sox batting lineup is quite lethal, although they’ve slowed down compared to last year. Their leaders in the following categories have flailed in comparison to previous years – Xander Bogaerts .273 AVG; Mookie Betts 24 HR; Betts 102 RBI; Andrew Benintendi .352 OBP; Betts .459 SLG. However, these players can turn things around in a hurry, especially in a best three-of-five series. The Red Sox were here last year and are definitely capable of posting a repeat performance.
Why The Astros Might Win The Series
The Astros have a deadly combination of hitting, pitching, and fielding, which has been on display for the majority of the season. Justin Verlander, after being acquired from the Detroit Tigers, will likely get the start in game one. On the year, Verlander is 15-8 with a 3.36 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, and 9.6 K/9 along with a 0.33:1 BB:K ratio and a 1.18 HR/9 rate. However, since the trade, Verlander has been nearly untouchable for the Astros, posting a 5-0 record with a 1.06 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, and 11.4 K/9 – godly numbers. The Astros’ rotation will also include Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton, Lance McCullers, and Collin McHugh. Here are the season stats for these starting pitchers.
Dallas Keuchel: 14-5 with a 2.90 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, 0.38:1 BB:K ratio, and 0.93 HR/9 rate
Charlie Morton: 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA, 3.46 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 0.31:1 BB:K ratio, and 0.86 HR/9 rate
Lance McCullers: 7-4 with a 4.25 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 0.30:1 BB:K ratio, and 0.61 HR/9 rate
Collin McHugh: 5-2 with a 3.55 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 0.32:1 BB:K ratio, and 1.00 HR/9 rate
The Astros have a pretty stacked rotation but that’s not all. Their lethal batting lineup is led by potential AL MVP Jose Altuve – .346/.410/.547 slash line with 24 HR, 81 RBI, 112 R, 39 2B, and 32 SB. While Altuve leads the Astros in AVG, OBP, and SLG, George Springer has clubbed 34 HR and Marwin Gonzalez has recorded 90 RBI to lead the team. The Astros don’t have too many weaknesses and if Sale disappoints in game one, this series could be wrapped up quickly.
Outlook
The Astros have better pitching, hitting, and fielding, while also boasting a bullpen that’s likely on part with the Red Sox’s. On the season, these two teams have played each other seven times, with the Astros winning four of the seven games. I’m expecting the Astros to win the series as well as they’re clearly the superior team. It just feels like it’s the Astros’ year, with everything that’s happened with Hurricane Harvey. While you have to lay some juice with them in this spot, they’re the team that we’re going to go with. Take them on the series price to advance.
Pick: Astros -165
The MLB season is in coming to a conclusion, so if you’re looking at betting lines, in-game betting and World Series futures, click here to bet on MLB (or any other sports) at BetDSI!
