The MLB All-Star break is the perfect time of the year to take a step back and reflect on what we saw over the first half of the season. The sample size is more than big enough to provide an accurate reflection of the games played so far. We can now use those numbers to help predict what to expect the rest of the way. Here is a look at the best MLB teams for betting the over on the totals so far this season with their records in brackets.
Tampa Bay Rays
O-U Record: 53-36-1
The Rays have managed to stay in the thick of the American League playoff race thanks in large part to the 11th-highest scoring offense in the majors this season. While Tampa Bay’s pitching hasn’t been terrible, the offense has been better than expected. Corey Dickerson is an All-Star. Logan Morrison, Steven Souza Jr. and Evan Longoria have all been excellent. The fact that the Rays were perceived as a lower scoring team that would have to grind out wins on the strength of their pitching also contributed to their success on the over bets. The over has hit in 53 of Tampa Bay’s 90 games so far this season, which is the best mark in the majors at the All-Star break.
New York Mets
O-U Record: 49-27-10
While the Mets rank in the top-10 in slugging percentage this season, their offense ranks just 16th in runs scored. So why is New York the second-best team for betting the over this season? A potentially dynamic pitching staff has been absolutely awful. The Mets owned the worst team ERA in the majors for a while and currently rank 28th in that department. Matt Harvey has been terrible. Noah Syndergaard and Jeurys Familia have been sidelined with injuries. Zack Wheeler has struggled. The Mets have been one of the best teams in the majors for betting the over. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues now that nobody is overrating their pitching staff any longer.
New York Yankees (49-36-1)
The fact that both teams from New York rank in the top-three in this category means that there have been plenty of fireworks in the area this season. Unlike the Mets, the Yankees have been responsible for most of the runs scored in their games. Rookie sensation Aaron Judge has been absolutely dominant with 30 home runs and a .329 average at the All-Star break. He hasn’t had to do it all alone either as Brett Gardner, Starlin Castro, Aaron Hicks and Gary Sanchez have all contributed at a high level. The pinstripes are capable of scoring runs in bunches and as long as they stay healthy they should remain a top team for betting the over.
Oakland Athletics
O-U Record: 49-38-2
The Athletics are another team that made this list in large part due to their pitching struggles. Oakland’s staff ranks 25th in the majors with a 4.78 ERA despite the 13th-best team WHIP and 42 quality starts this season. Jharel Cotton, Jesse Hahn, Andrew Triggs and Kendall Gravemen have all underwhelmed this season. Meanwhile, Sonny Gray has shown flashes but hasn’t pitched ant an elite level. Khris Davis, Yonder Alonso and Ryon Healy have been the best players in a below-average offense but the poor pitching numbers are the biggest reason why the Athletics are on this list.
Miami Marlins
O-U Record: 47-34-6
The final spot on this list belongs to a Marlins team that has been good enough on offense and bad enough on the other side of the ball to squeeze in the top-five best teams for betting the over. The over has hit in 47 of Miami’s 87 games this season. Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and Justin Bour have led an offense that ranks 14th in the majors in runs scored despite a top-five batting average. Meanwhile, Edinson Volquez, Tom Koehler and Wei-Yin Chen have disappointed on the mound. The St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers are right there with Miami among the best teams to bet the over this season. However, right now it’s the Marlins that own the final spot on this list based on the percentage of their games that have gone over the total.
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