This NLDS matchup features a pair of teams that have ended the season on remarkable hot streaks as the Brewers host the Rockies. The Brewers narrowly edged the Cubs for the NL Central crown with a 3-1 win on Monday and they’ll continue to lean on Christian Yelich, an MVP candidate who nearly became the first NL player to earn the Triple Crown since 1937.
Colorado also played a 163rd game but lost to the Dodgers. That set up a Wild Card game with the Cubs, which the Rockies won 2-1 in 13 innings as 1.5 run underdogs on Tuesday. Their infield combo of Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story were among the players blocking Yelich from making history.
Brewers
Overall Record: 96-67
ATS: 88-75
Over/Under: 79-81-3
Milwaukee finished the season tied for the third-most wins against the spread, though they only have one more than Colorado. With a cover rate of 54 percent, only the Rays, Red Sox and Reds were better.
The Brewers’ win over the Cubs meant not only home-field advantage, but the luxury of relaxing at home during the Colorado-Chicago marathon. They’ll have the fresher bullpen by far and were not burdened with the travel schedule that the Rockies have had to endure.
Milwaukee won five of its seven matchups with the Rockies this year. The Brewers’ 51 home wins tied the Cubs for the most in the National League. By contrast, the Indians were the only playoff team with fewer road wins than the Rockies.
Plus, the Brewers are even hotter than Colorado. They’ve won nine straight and 11 of their last 12.
Rockies
Overall Record: 92-72
ATS: 87-77
Over/Under: 68-87-9
Colorado’s 87 unders were the second-most in MLB. At 56.1 percent, they were more likely to go under than any other team. But they also scored the second-most runs in the National League, so it’s possible oddsmakers overcompensated for the increased offense at Coors Field.
The Rockies will certainly appreciate Tuesday’s break. They had played every day since Sept. 20, including back-to-back road games in Los Angeles and Chicago. Five relievers appeared in the 13-inning Chicago game and four of them threw at least 20 pitches.
One would think German Marquez and especially Kyle Freeland would be unavailable for Game 1, meaning the Rockies would likely have to lean on Jon Gray. Gray’s only postseason start came last year against the D-backs, when he gave up seven hits and four earned runs in 1.1 innings.
In two meetings with the Brewers this year, Gray went 0-1 and gave up seven earned runs in 13.1 innings. Though he got rocked at Coors Field, he was in line for the win at Miller Park before Adam Ottavino blew a 4-1 lead in the bottom of the ninth.
It should also be noted that Story teed off on Milwaukee this year. He went 9-for-27 with seven home runs, a double and a triple.
Pick
The Brewers have almost everything going in their favor. They’re better-rested. They have home-field advantage. They won both of their series with the Rockies this year. They do well at home while the Rockies are not as good on the road. You hate going against either team when they’re both on fire, but the Brewers are the better bet.
