The marquee Division Series of the year features two of the best teams in baseball and one of the oldest rivalries in professional sports. The Yankees and Red Sox meet in Boston for Game 1 of the ALDS on Friday.
The Red Sox had the best record in the majors by five games. Their 876 runs scored were the most in the league by far. Mookie Betts picked up the AL Batting Title, while J.D. Martinez led the AL in RBIs and finished second in home runs. Betts also led the majors in WAR with 10.9.
The Yankees set a Major League record with 267 home runs this year and it wasn’t just one or two players contributing, either. Giancarlo Stanton led the way with 38, while Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Miguel Andujar and Aaron Hicks tied for second with 27 apiece. Luis Severino’s 19 wins were third in the AL behind Tampa’s Blake Snell and Cleveland’s Corey Kluber.
Yankees
Overall Record: 100-62
ATS: 83-79
Over/Under: 79-76-7
Despite having the third-best record in baseball, the Yankees were unfortunate to share a division with the Red Sox. They hosted the Athletics in a Wild Card game on Wednesday and easily dispatched them, 7-2, in a game that was never really close.
Though the Red Sox won eight more games, the season series was much closer. The Yankees went 9-10 against them, so it’s not like Boston had their number. New York rebounded from a disastrous four-game sweep in August to take two-of-three in each of its final two series with the Red Sox.
Since Severino pitched against Oakland, the Yankees could turn to Masahiro Tanaka for Game 1. Tanaka was a respectable 12-6 with a 3.75 ERA, but he had some trouble with Boston. He went 1-0 in four starts, but had zero quality starts and allowed 16 earned runs in 19 innings for an ERA of 7.58.
Red Sox
Overall Record: 108-54
ATS: 92-70
Over/Under: 77-76-9
Calling the Red Sox dominant may be an understatement. Not only do they have the best record, but they also tied Tampa for the league’s highest cover percentage (58.6). Their plus-229 run differential dwarfed all but Houston.
Having home-field advantage will be big against the Yankees. Though the Red Sox were 10-9 against them overall, they were 7-3 at Fenway Park. They’ll get to use ace Chris Sale for Game 1, which is especially advantageous given his track record against the Yankees. He has a lifetime ERA of 1.61 in 100.2 innings.
On the other hand, David Price could be a major liability. The Yankees have torched him throughout his career. His career ERA of 4.90 actually looks decent compared to what New York did to him this year. He didn’t win any of his four starts (0-3) and gave up 18 runs in 15.2 innings for an ERA of 10.34. To his credit, he did post a quality start at Fenway Park in August.
Pick
The Red Sox have a tremendous advantage as AL East Champions. They’ll be favorites in Game 1 with Sale pitching at home. Things could get rocky with Price starting Game 2, but the Yankees would counter with the aforementioned Tanaka, Severino on three days’ rest, or C.C. Sabathia, who had a 5.40 ERA in September. Certainly winnable games, especially at Fenway. Even if the Yankees sweep at home, they’d still have Sale and Fenway waiting for them for Game 5. This is looking like a Red Sox victory, though this is the sort of rivalry where anything can happen.
