As the MLB season has ended, the attention now turns to the world of free agency where a number of key pitchers are going to get big paydays. As we saw in the 2014 Fall Classic, pitching wins championships, so keep on eye on the destination for this year’s best arms:
1. Jon Lester
This is the one to watch. Lester is the best pitcher to be found, as indicated by his ERA, which was well below three runs for much of the season and was enough to get the Oakland Athletics into the American League wild card game against the Kansas City Royals. Lester took a four-run lead into the bottom of the eighth inning, having settled down after a sluggish start.
His bullpen really let him down, and so even though he wasn’t on top of his game on one night, that shouldn’t be held against him. He was not the problem for Oakland over the final two months of last season. The fact that Lester is a lefty will add to his value for a prospective buyer, but what really comes across is his experience, including in the postseason. A team that gets Lester will have a pitcher who is good over the long haul, but also in the sprint of October.
2. Max Scherzer
Scherzer was solid last season in Detroit, but the Tigers didn’t offer him $144 million to be just a really good pitcher. Scherzer won the Cy Young Award in the American League in 2013, so the Tigers were expecting Cy Young-level performances from Scherzer this past year.
Yet, a season-ending ERA of 3.15 and a very ordinary second half of the season did not give Detroit what it was hoping for. Scherzer just didn’t dominate hitters the way he did in 2013. He gave up more big innings and ran into a lot of situations in which he threw 85 or more pitches by the fifth inning. Scherzer has to be more efficient in terms of pitch counts. Right now, Lester should be seen as a better bet.
3. James Shields
The sight of Shields struggling in the playoffs, except for Game 5 of the World Series against the San Francisco Giants, might scare a few organizations away from Shields, but in the regular season, he’s still a workhorse who can greatly help a team. Shields concede three runs or fewer in 12 of his final 13 regular season starts. He pitched a minimum of a full six innings in that series of starts. In the playoffs, on the other hand, he completed six innings all of two times. Teams will want Shields for the regular season, but will they want him for October?
4. David Robertson
This is the best closer on the market. Everybody worried how the New York Yankees would possibly do when Mariano Rivera retired. However, Robertson stepped in and did a very good overall job, providing the Yankees with stability instead of anxiety. He has shown that he can handle the pressure which goes along with being a closer. That’s something other teams will appreciate.
5. Andrew Miller
After a few years of obscurity, Miller came of age this past season. His lefty frame, his disguise of his release point, and wicked stuff all made him an extremely strong late-inning reliever. That kind of arm with that kind of ability to get key late-inning outs in high-leverage situations will make Miller a prime target among free agent pitchers. He’s going to receive interest from a lot of clubs.
