The Major League Baseball season is just about over. Two of the bigger free agents in the coming offseason are still playing in the World Series, but who else will be the prizes from the upcoming free agency class? Let’s take a look at the top five MLB free agents to be.
1. Jon Lester
This is the biggest free agent prize in the market. Lester was not able to get the Oakland Athletics into the American League Division Series, so a lot of people will question his ability to perform at a level that justifies a fat salary. In addition to the fact that Lester didn’t get the A’s to the ALDS, a lot of people have been saying that the trade which brought Lester to Oakland in exchange for Yoenis Cespedes was a failure. Lester’s reputation might be reduced for this reason.
Yet, the broader story on Lester is that he pitched extremely well since the trade happened. Oakland’s bats did not give him very reliable run support. Lester also took his team into the eighth inning of the one-game American League wild card playoff against the Kansas City Royals when Oakland had a four-run lead. Manager Bob Melvin could have gone to his bullpen at the start of the eighth, however, Melvin left Lester on the mound. While that could be viewed as a negative reflection on Lester, Melvin probably deserves most of the criticism for that scene. In the sea of pending free agents, Lester is the biggest fish out there, as shown by his 2.55 ERA entering the month of September.
2. Max Scherzer
At the beginning of the season, Scherzer stood to be the best free agent on the market at the end of 2014. However, as the season developed, Scherzer became something less than a true ace for the Detroit Tigers. Scherzer remained solid, but the Tigers didn’t offer him $144 million to be an okay pitcher.
Scherzer turned down that offer and wanted to test himself on the market, and while he will still be an attractive free-agent target, his season-ending ERA of 3.15 will probably drag down his value compared to where it was at the beginning of the year. Scherzer frequently got into games in the second half of the season when his pitch counts crept into the 80s or 90s in the fifth inning. That can’t last if Scherzer is going to be an ace for a new team.
3. James Shields
The problem with Shields has been the postseason. Shields wasn’t dominant in any of his four playoff starts, and he was poor in his ALCS and World Series starts, not counting what he’ll do in Game 5 against the San Francisco Giants. However, Shields gave up three runs or fewer in 12 of his last 13 regular season starts. He went at least six innings in each of those starts, whereas in the playoffs, he completed six innings only once, in Game 3 of the ALDS against the Los Angeles Angels. A team that gets Shields will have a strong regular season pitcher who can eat up innings, but a team intent on winning a World Series might not want to make the investment in him.
4. Pablo Sandoval
This is a tough call. Sandoval has been inconsistent at the plate over the course of the season, but he has gotten some big hits for the Giants in their run to the World Series. Sandoval has power, but AT&T Park in San Francisco is not a hitter’s park. The team that gets Sandoval, if it’s not the Giants, must be very aware of what Sandoval can and can’t do.
5. Nelson Cruz
A lot of people will say that Hanley Ramirez will make a better free-agent candidate, but Ramirez has been dogged by injuries and has only begun to get really healthy. Teams might not be sold on his ability to stay healthy. Cruz might be a better option. He’s been an essential part of Baltimore’s rise to the American League Championship Series, and he got a lot of big postseason hits in the ALDS against Detroit. He might be worth more to a team than Ramirez.
