With the 2017 MLB season right around the corner, now is the time to think outside the box when coming up with a plan of attack for your fantasy baseball drafts. We took the time to look at a handful of pitchers that you should keep in mind both because of the good and the bad heading in to your MLB fantasy draft. Here is a look at some potential MLB fantasy pitching sleepers and busts for 2017.
Sleepers
James Paxton, Seattle Mariners
When it comes to pitchers with at least 120 innings of work last year, Paxton ranked fourth overall with a 2.80 FIP. His strikeout rate went from 7.5 K/9 in 2015 to 8.7 K/9 in 2016 while his walk rate dipped from 3.9 BB/9 to 1.8 BB/9. Paxton might not be a big name pitcher but he has all of the tools to put together another solid campaign while flying under the radar. He will have a tough time dramatically improving his numbers for the second year in a row but if Paxton can at least maintain his solid numbers from a year ago in 2017, then he should be in for another big season as a MLB fantasy sleeper. What’s helping his cause is that he works in a pitcher’s park in Seattle. That gives him an edge and that’s something that MLB fantasy GM’s will want to consider when drafting him.
Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks
Ray’s 218 strikeouts tied for the ninth-most in the majors last season while his 11.3 K/9 was the 10th-highest single-season total ever for a qualified left-handed starter. Unfortunately for his fantasy owners, Ray’s ridiculous K rate also came with a brutal 4.90 ERA but there is reason to expect that number to come down in 2017. Ray posted a 3.76 FIP and we expect his ERA to come down this coming season. If he can do a better job of keeping runs off the board while maintaining a high strikeout rate then he could emerge as another deep sleeper to watch out for in 2017. The Diamondbacks are viewed as a sleeper team by many experts and if they are in fact to move up the ranks and possibly even compete for a Wild Card spot, a guy like Ray is going to have to have a strong season.
Busts
Matt Harvey, New York Mets
Harvey is going a little too high in most fantasy baseball leagues right now when you consider the risk he brings to the table. Harvey has had trouble staying healthy over the years and it definitely doesn’t help that he is coming off thoracic outlet surgery. To compare to the pitcher below, J.A. Happ has made at least 31 starts in each of his last team seasons. As for Harvey, he made 17 starts in 2016, 29 starts in 2015, missed 2014, then made 26 starts in 2013 and 10 starts in 2012.
Harvey is set to turn 28-years-old this season, so it might be time to start tempering expectations that he can still be an elite fantasy pitcher. When he’s healthy and he’s on, he can be very good but you don’t want to get busted over-investing in a player that has a history of disappointing in terms of MLB fantasy.
J.A. Happ, Toronto Blue Jays
Happ surprised just about everyone last season when he registered 20 wins with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Each of those stats marked career-best numbers though, so there is reason to expect a little regression. Happ hadn’t posted an ERA lower than 4.22 since 2010 before recording a 3.61 mark in 2015 and then bringing that number down even further last year. so don’t expect his numbers to be as dominant in 2017. However, the fact that his 2015 ERA was lower than his previous lows indicates that a change in scenery (and possibly a change in coaching) has brought out the best in him. The Jays also appear to be a team in decline – at least in terms of the batting lineup and bullpen – and that could mean added pressure on the starting rotation. We’ll see how much of an impact that has on Happ.
Also, it’s worth remembering that wins are a very random stat as well so it might be a stretch to draft him as a 20-win pitcher when he had never recorded more than 12 in a season before last year.
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