The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series will speed in to Talladega, Alabama and the Talladega Superspeedway for this week’s GEICO 500. The Talladega Superspeedway is the biggest and fastest track on the NASCAR circuit. That is the biggest reason why this race can be so difficult to predict. Drivers will spend the entire race attempting to make a run to the front of the pack but all it takes is an unanticipated bump or rub to completely knock a portion of the field right out of the race. The anticipation and excitement at Talladega is almost unlike anything else when it comes to NASCAR. It will be that much more fun if we can find a way to win with our best bets for this week.
Event Details
Event: GEICO 500
Category: NASCAR Sprint Cup
Date: May 7th, 2017
Location: Talladega Superspeedway, Talladega, Alabama
Most drivers will do whatever it takes to ride up front and avoid getting caught up in the “big one.” Brad Keselowski did his best to stay at the front of the pack last year when he captured his third-career win at Talladega Superspeedway. Last year’s race featured 37 lead changes among different drivers and ten cautions for 41 laps. We can expect similar numbers for what should be another wild edition of the GEICO 500 this year.
Past Five Winners
2016: Brad Keselowski
2015: Dale Earnhardt Jr.
2014: Denny Hamlin
2013: David Ragan
2012: Brad Keselowski
What To Know About The Track
The fact that this track is known for the “Big One” should be all the information you need heading in to this week’s race. The Talladega Superspeedway has hosted some considerable wrecks over the years including a memorable eight-car pileup in last year’s GEICO 500. Talladega is the longest NASCAR oval and that is why drivers are able to reach such high speeds. Experience will certainly count for something when it comes to this week’s race as drivers need to be able to tow the line between speed and control.
The Field
Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson and Joey Logano will be among the sports betting favorites to win this week’s GEICO 500. It should be no surprise that most sportsbooks have Dale Earnhardt Jr. among the favorites as well. The theory is that Dale Jr. will deliver some of the best results of his season the rest of the way after announcing he will retire at the end of the year. However, the reality is that Earnhardt has been terrible this season and it’s smarter to avoid him altogether this week. Denny Hamlin won this race in 2014 and should be another option worth considering from a betting perspective. Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch round out the list of favorites for this week’s race.
Taking a look at the standings, Kyle Larson enters the week as our leader. In nine starts, he has six Top 10’s. He’s followed by Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott, Joey Logano and Brad Keselowksi.
A Good Matchup To Bet: Kevin Harvick over Kyle Larson
It’s hard to find value in terms of reliable head-to-head sports betting matchups at a track like Talladega but it seems like a smart bet to take Harvick over Larson. Harvick has always been known as a quality pick for restrictor-plate races and he is even more reliable after switching his strategy to make sure he runs up front to avoid wrecks. Meanwhile, Larson has been excellent this season but he lacks experience at this track and that could be his biggest issue. Take the veteran Harvick to outsmart the youngster Larson and produce a better result in the GEICO 500 this week.
Top Five Pick: Joey Logano
While Keselowski won this race last year, Logano will be the driver to beat this Sunday. Logano has won two of the last three races at Talladega and is quickly becoming known for his dominance in restrictor-plate races. Logano has the second-best average finish in the last eight races on the Superspeedways. Look for Logano to contend for the outright win this week as a lock to finish in the top-five at the GEICO 500.
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