Event: NASCAR Monster Energy | 2018 Toyota Owners 400
Date: Saturday April 21, 2018 6:30 PM ET
Location: Richmond International Speedway, Virginia
TV: Fox
The 2018 NASCAR Toyota Owners 400 will be on an extremely short week for the drivers and their teams, much like last year. This year and last, the race at Bristol had to be completed on Monday due to rain, and with a Saturday race coming up at Richmond, it was, and will be a very fast turnaround. Fortunately, the trek from Bristol to Richmond is a pretty short one by NASCAR standards, but modifications and adjustments will have to be done swiftly for those drivers hoping to run well on the 3/4-mile track with 14-degree banking in the turns.
Coverage of the Toyota Owners 400 will be on Saturday evening , Arpil 21, with a 6:30 p.m. start time on Fox.
Odds To Win 2018 Toyota Owners 400:
Kyle Busch +400
Kevin Harvick +450
Denny Hamlin +500
Martin Truex Jr +650
Kyle Larson +750
Brad Keselowski +1150
Chase Elliott +1150
Joey Logano +1150
Clint Bowyer +1500
Ryan Blaney +1500
Erik Jones +1650
Kurt Busch +2000
Jimmie Johnson +2250
Aric Almirola +4400
Ryan Newman +8800
Alex Bowman +8800
Daniel Suarez +10000
Jamie McMurray +20000
William Byron +22500
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +22500
Paul Menard +22500
Austin Dillon +22500
Trevor Bayne +33000
Darrell Wallace Jr +33000
Kasey Kahne +55000
Ty Dillon +55000
AJ Allmendinger +55000
Chris Buescher +115000
Michael McDowell +115000
NASCAR Leaderboard
The Toyota Owners 400 is the ninth race of the NASCAR season. Through eight races, Kyle Busch is your runaway leader with 365 points. He is second in stage points and tied for first in bonus points for the playoffs. Joey Logano is a distant second with 306 points. Kevin Harvick, who has three wins this season, is third with 290 points, but lost out on 27 points due to infractions and violations with his car during a post-race inspection in Las Vegas. Clint Bowyer is fourth and Brad Keselowski is fifth. Ryan Blaney, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, and Kurt Busch round out the top 10. Austin Dillon only has one top-10 finish since he won the Daytona 500, but it appears that he will be taking away a playoff spot from a driver with more points. With 18 races left, there are five drivers with wins. We would likely need at least 11 unique winners to keep Dillon out, but the playoff points system could come into play.
Favorites to Win
The race favorite this week is not a big surprise, as Kyle Busch tops the board at odds of +400. Busch has finished third or better in six straight races, including back-to-back wins at Texas Motor Speedway and Bristol Motor Speedway, so he’s run well on 1.5-mile tracks, short tracks, and pretty much everything in between. Busch is a four-time winner of this race, with victories in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. He actually hasn’t won the fall race, but has three different second-place finishes. Along with his wins at Richmond, Busch has 11 additional top-five finishes. He runs very well here to say the least and is worth a bet, despite the short price.
The second favorite is Kevin Harvick at +450. Harvick’s lone win in this race came back in 2013 and he has two wins in the later race in 2006 and 2011. Harvick has five top-five finishes thus far, including three wins, and has picked up four stage wins as well. Fords are running pretty well this season, with Harvick third, Logano second, and Keselowski also in the top five. Harvick has three straight top-five finishes in this race and five in his last seven races overall at Richmond. Some guys excel on tracks of a certain length, but Harvick’s wins are spread out across all different types of tracks and his short track record is surprisingly good.
Denny Hamlin checks in at odds of +500. Hamlin is one of those drivers who tends to run better in tighter fields, whether on a short track or in a restrictor plate race. Hamlin has not won this particular race, but does have three wins in the fall race in his career. He was third in this race last year, which marked his best finish since 2012 in the spring race. He won the fall race in 2016 and was fifth last year. He’s usually a threat on these short tracks, but the value may not be there this week on his price.
Martin Truex Jr. is a tough sell at +650 and so is Kyle Larson at +750. Most of Truex’s best performances come on 1.5-mile tracks and Larson is strong on the two-mile tracks. That’s not to say that these two can’t make their way to the winner’s circle, but simply to say that the odds are against them. Larson did win at Richmond in the fall last year, but that is the only win at Richmond between the two drivers.
Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott, and Joey Logano all check in at +1150 this week. Logano won this race last year and was second in the fall, in case recent form is your thing. He also won it back in 2014. Keselowski has one win in the fall race. Elliott has zero wins. Logano isn’t a bad play this week, as he has seven top-10 finishes in eight races this season, though he only has two top-five finishes, hence the price.
Clint Bowyer’s win on the short track at Martinsville maybe isn’t that big of a surprise. After all, he has two wins on the short track here and seems to be a guy that is capable of runs like this in close races. He is at +1500 and is probably the longest shot on the board worth consideration.
