Martin Truex Jr. got the Monster Energy Cup NASCAR playoffs off to a roaring start by winning at Chicagoland. He remains at the top of the power rankings heading into New Hampshire this weekend. Truex Jr. got the win after starting third. However, Chase Elliott was the driver who picked up the most points last week (53) even though he finished second. Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson all rounded out the top five. Larson was the only driver from that group to finish in the top five but didn’t actually lead for a single lap at all.
Looking ahead to this week, New Hampshire is a one-mile track that is quite flat, twice the size of Martinsville, but far less banking than a short track like Richmond and Bristol. Before we get to those races though, let’s look at the updated futures to win the Cup this season:
1. Martin Truex Jr.
Last Week: 1
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +175
Truex, the regular-season points champion, led 77 laps en route to his fifth win of the season to stake his claim as the Cup favorite. He has fared well at New Hampshire in the past, coming up with a 13.3 average in 23 starts there, including a third-place run here in July in which he started from the pole and led 137 laps. Truex also finished seventh in this race last fall, and this is as good a time as any to get his first win at New Hampshire. He has been the favorite for a large part of the season and he showed why last week.
2. Kyle Busch
Last Week: 2
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +333
Busch started on the pole at Chicagoland and led 85 laps, but could only muster a 15th-place finish. He has a 13.7 finishing average in 25 starts at New Hampshire, including a pair of wins, but they’ve come in the summer race in 2006 and 2015. He finished 12th here in July, but Busch finished a solid third in this race in 2016. Busch needs a better result than what he managed at Chicagoland last week, but he is still a major title contender.
3. Kyle Larson
Last Week: 3
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +400
Larson finished fifth last week at Chicagoland, failing to lead a lap, but he hung around the front of the pack, which is encouraging. He has made seven starts at New Hampshire, posting an average finish of 11.7, and he had a good run here in July, starting 39th, but Larson stormed through the pack to finish second. He also finished sixth here last fall, and a win would show how serious he is about a challenge for the title.
4. Kevin Harvick
Last Week: 4
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +550
Harvick led 59 laps at Chicagoland en route to a third-place finish in which he tried to run with Truex at the end of the race, but at least Harvick led some laps. He is pretty good at New Hampshire with a 12.8 finishing average in 33 starts, including a pair of wins in the 2006 and 2016 fall races. He only led eight laps as he won last fall, but a win is a win. Harvick also finished fifth here in the summer, and Chicagoland was one of his best runs of the last two months.
5. Brad Keselowski
Last Week: 5
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +650
Keselowski led a lap and finished sixth at Chicagoland, and now he heads to New Hampshire, where he has a finishing average of 10.2 in 16 starts there, which includes a win in the 2014 summer race. Keselowski finished ninth here in July, and he ran fourth in this race in 2016, so a win would put him in the title conversation.
6. Denny Hamlin
Last Week: 7
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +900
Hamlin started second last week at Chicagoland, but he could only finish fourth at the end of the race. He won the July race at New Hampshire, leading 54 laps, and he finished 15th here last fall. Hamlin is as good as it gets at New Hampshire overall as he has a 10.0 finishing average in 23 starts here, including three wins. Two of those came in the summer in 2007 and this year, and in the fall race, Hamlin won the 2012 race, so he is a definite threat.
7. Jimmie Johnson
Last Week: 6
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +1200
Johnson’s title defense got off to a decent start as he finished eighth at Chicagoland, but he was never really a factor in the race. He’ll head to New Hampshire, where he has a 10.5 finishing average in 31 starts, which includes a sweep of the 2003 races, and he also won the 2010 fall race. He started second in the July race, but could only finish 10th, and in the 2016 fall race, he started fourth and finished eighth. Johnson needs a spark.
8. Chase Elliott
Last Week: 8
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +2500
Elliott had a great showing at Chicagoland, starting eighth and leading 42 laps as he eventually finished second to Truex. He has started just three races at New Hampshire, posting a 9.3 starting average, but it has translated to a 19.3 finishing average. He started and finished in the 11th spot here in July, and in this race last year, he started 10th and finished 13th, but he did manage to lead a lap along the way.
9. Matt Kenseth
Last Week: 9
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +3300
Kenseth finished ninth last week at Chicagoland, and he has a solid track record at New Hampshire as he has a finishing average of 11.8 in 35 starts, winning the 2016 summer race, and he has won the fall race twice, once in 2013 and again in 2015. He finished fourth here in July and led four laps after starting third, and in this race last year, Kenseth started eighth and led 105 laps en route to a second-place finish.
10. Ryan Blaney
Last Week: 10
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +8000
Blaney had a quiet day at Chicagoland, starting 12th and finishing 11th. He has four starts under his belt at New Hampshire, posting a 16.3 finishing average, which includes a 19th-place finish here in July. Last fall, he finished 12th, which was solid, and Blaney will be looking for a finish around that part of the leaderboard.
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