The end of the regular season is here as the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup prepares for the second race of the season at Richmond Raceway. Seven of the top 10 are in the Chase already, while the last three drivers are in on points, but a win would be nice to cement their spot. Martin Truex Jr. is our leader both in the points and in terms of the odds to win it all. He has 1000 points so far on the strength of 17 Top 10’s and four wins. Kyle Busch is 107 points behind him in second place with a pair of wins and 15 Top 10’s. The top five is rounded out by the likes of Kyle Larson, Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin.
1. Martin Truex Jr.
Last Week: 1
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +350
Truex clinched the regular-season title with an eighth-place run at Darlington, although he was leading until almost the very end and then he blew a tire. To be honest, finishing eighth was an accomplishment considering what happened, but with four wins and the title wrapped up, Truex has nothing to worry about going into Richmond, where he finished 10th in the spring. In 11 starts in the Richmond summer race, Truex has the same number of top-10s as DNFs (two) and an average finish of 22.7.
2. Kyle Busch
Last Week: 2
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +350
Busch came in second at Darlington, although he led just six laps (Truex led 76 laps). He is nine points ahead of Kyle Larson in the standings, so Busch will be driving hard, but he doesn’t know any other way to do things anyway. Busch finished 16th at Richmond in the spring and in 12 starts in the Richmond summer race, he has a finishing average of 9.5 and seven top-10s.
3. Kyle Larson
Last Week: 4
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +500
Larson finished 14th at Darlington after leading 124 laps early in the race, but with three wins, he has nothing to worry about heading into Richmond. He finished 14th in the spring race, but he has been great in three starts in the summer race so far with a finishing average of 8.3. It is a small sample size, but it is the best average finish among active drivers.
4. Kevin Harvick
Last Week: 5
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +650
Harvick managed to lead 22 laps at Darlinton en route to a ninth-place finish, and he is 17 points behind Larson in the standings, so he’ll be chasing Larson hard down the stretch because any improvement in your position at this point in the season is a good one. Harvick finished fifth in the Richmond spring race, and in the summer, he is excellent with an 8.6 finishing average in 16 starts, which includes wins in 2006 and 2011.
5. Brad Keselowski
Last Week: 6
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +700
Keselowski finished 15th at Darlington and had a quiet race as he sits sixth in the standings on points, but he has two wins, along with Busch and Denny Hamlin. He finished second in the spring race here at Richmond, and he has an average finish of 12.8 in eight starts in the summer race. This includes a win in 2014. Watch his starting position as well as Keselowski started from the pole in 2014 and led 383 laps en route to the win. He is one of three drivers with a starting average under 10.0 as he joins Larson (7.0) and the next driver.
6. Jimmie Johnson
Last Week: 3
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +700
That’s right, Johnson has a starting average of 8.8 in this race, which is tied with Keselowski. He finished 12th at Darlington, and 11th in the spring race at Richmond. He has an average finish of 15.7 in the summer race in 15 starts, and some say Johnson needs a win here to get going as he has two top-10s in his last 12 starts since winning at Dover. He is the defending champion, and seven-time champion: Johnson deserves every benefit of the doubt.
7. Denny Hamlin
Last Week: 7
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +1000
Hamlin led 126 wins en route to the checkered flag at Darlington, and he also won the Xfinity race, but both wins are encumbered as both cars failed the post-race inspection. Fortunately, Hamlin has his New Hampshire win to fall back on, but he’ll come out with some fire at Richmond, where he finished third in the spring and he is generally better in the summer race, where he has an average finish of 9.3 in 11 starts. This includes wins in 2009, 2010 and he is the defending race-winner from last season, when he led 189 laps.
8. Chase Elliott
Last Week: 8
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +1600
Elliott finished 11th at Darlington and he has the most points of any non-winning driver with 737 points, which is just two ahead of Matt Kenseth and three ahead of Jamie McMurray. Elliott could only muster a 24th-place finish here in the spring, and he finished 19th here in his first summer-race start in 2016. However, Elliott is getting more and more confidence with each race and he just needs to keep his nose clean to get into the Chase.
9. Matt Kenseth
Last Week: 9
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +2500
Kenseth finished sixth at Darlington, and he’ll be eager to get back to Richmond as he led 164 laps in the spring, yet finished 23rd. He has an average of 18.9 in 17 starts in the summer race, but he also won it in 2002 and 2015. Remember, Kenseth is looking for a new ride in 2018 and he has been on fire lately; he has a better chance of winning than Elliott.
10. Joey Logano
Last Week: 10
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +2500
Logano finished 18th at Darlington and he should be in the playoffs anyway, but he won the spring race at Richmond, which was encumbered because of a post-race violation. Now, he is all but out of the playoffs as he trails McMurray by 129 points and basically has to win this race, along with not failing any inspections. He has an average finish of 15.5 in eight summer-race starts, and Logano will be fearless this weekend.
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