The NASCAR Monster Energy Cup series returns after a week off with the 25th round, which takes them to venerable Darlington Raceway in South Carolina for the Bojangles 500. The defending race winner is Martin Truex Jr., who also tops this week’s edition of the power rankings.
Taking a look at the actual standings (before getting to who the odds makers view are the best bets), Martin Truex Jr. is our leader with 951 points. He has won four times this year and has registered 10 Top 5’s and 16 Top 10’s. He has a solid buffer over Kyle Busch, who is in second with 850 points. Kyle Larson is in third place with 845 on the strength of three wins while Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin round out the top five. Each have picked up one win. Here is a closer at this week’s power rankings, based on how the odds makers rank the Top 10 drivers.
1. Martin Truex Jr.
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +350
Truex Jr. had a streak of top-three finishes halted at three as he finished 21st at Bristol, but he still leads leads the standings with 951 points. His four wins leads the way in the Monster Energy Cup series, and he has finished in the top 10 on 10 occasions. In 2016, he led just 28 laps at Darlington, but he was at the front of the most important lap as he took the checkered flag. In 11 starts at Darlington, he has an average finish of 11.6, which is fourth among active drivers.
2. Kyle Busch
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +350
It was a busy weekend at Bristol for Busch, who won the Trucks race, the Xfinity race and then the Cup race, leading 156 laps along the way. It was the second win of the year for Busch, and he has now finished in the top seven in three of his last four starts, which also includes a win at Pocono. He won at Darlington in 2008 and finished 11th here in 2016, taking his finishing average to 12.8 in 12 starts.
3. Jimmie Johnson
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +500
Johnson is 11th in the standings, nine spots behind Busch after an 11th-place run at Bristol, but he is in the playoffs by virtue of his three wins. Still, it’s getting worrisome for Johnson, who has just two top-10s in his last 11 starts, and those were 10th-place finishes at Michigan and New Hampshire. Johnson won at Darlington in 2004 and 2012, but he came in 33rd here last year. His finishing average of 10.4 in 18 starts is pretty good, but the seven-time champion needs to finish some momentum.
4. Kyle Larson
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +600
Larson is third in the standings after finishing ninth at Bristol, but he did lead 70 laps and started second on the day. He finished third at Darlington last year in his third start at the “Track Too Tough To Tame”, and he has a finishing average of 7.0 there. That’s not too bad for a young driver on one of NASCAR’s most difficult courses.
5. Kevin Harvick
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +700
Harvick sits fourth in the standings after coming in eighth at Bristol, which isn’t bad considering that he started 29th. He hasn’t led a lap in seven races, which should be a concern for Harvick, who dominated last year at Darlington by leading 214 laps. However, he finished second as he couldn’t keep up with Truex Jr. on a late restart. He won here in 2014 and has a finishing average of 15.7 in 20 Darlington starts.
6. Brad Keselowski
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +800
Keselowski finished 29th at Bristol and now sits sixth in the standings, and his results have been getting worst in each of the last five races. He won two of the first five races at Atlanta and Las Vegas, so he is in, but like a few other drivers that have wins and are in the Chase already, Keselowski and his team are trying new things, or he is struggling. He has been pretty solid at Darlington, posting a finishing average of 12.1 in eight starts, so he could turn it around here.
7. Denny Hamlin
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +1200
Hamlin is one spot ahead of Keselowski in the standings after finishing third at Bristol, and he has finished in the top four in seven of his last 10 races, including a win at New Hampshire. Hamlin has a win here at Darlington in 2010, and he has a finishing average of 6.3 in 11 starts, which tops all active drivers. Hamlin is starting to roll, but he has to hope that he isn’t peaking at the wrong time. He has all the talent to win a title, now he has to execute.
8. Chase Elliott
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +1500
Elliott finished 18th at Bristol, but his 711 points is the highest of all the non-race winners so far, so he is just holding on. He has just two top-10 finishes in his last eight starts, but Elliott did finish 10th at Darlington last year to improve his average there to 25.5 in two starts. He might be simply looking to finish and get as many points as he can at Darlington, because if he tries to get too greedy, the track will bite him.
9. Matt Kenseth
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +1500
Furthermore, Elliott has Kenseth on his heels with an eight-point lead as Kenseth finished fourth at Bristol. It was his fifth top-10 finish in six starts, and fourth in the top five. The veteran is getting hot at the right time and he is decent at Darlington with an average of 15.8 in 23 starts. This includes a win here in 2013.
10. Joey Logano
NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Title Odds: +3000
Logano had finished outside of the top 25 in three straight starts before a 13th-place run at Bristol. His place in the Chase is not locked down due to his win at Richmond being “encumbered” because of a violation with his car. He has a finishing average of 18.4 in eight starts here and finished fifth at Darlington last year, but Logano might actually need the checkered flag to feel safe about the playoffs.
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