The Chicago Cubs have garnered the offseason headlines, but the old money St. Louis Cardinals remain the class of a National League Central Division that could also be won by the Pittsburgh Pirates or Cincinnati Reds. Let’s make our picks for the 2015 win totals in what is one of the top divisions in the game.
Chicago Cubs: Over 83 +103/Under 83 -122
No team, with the possible exception of the San Diego Padres, received more favorable Hot Stove League hype than the Chicago Cubs. The hype is well earned, starting with the arrival of the best manager in baseball, Joe Maddon, who arrives after working miracles as skipper of the Tampa Bay Rays. Left hander Jon Lester and right hander Jason Hammel arrive to give the rotation instant credibility and will be caught by another new arrival, Miguel Montero from the Arizona Diamondbacks. The problem for the Cubs is that they are in one of the toughest divisions in baseball and are unproven as a group. Another problem is that that public has bet the value out of them already. UNDER 83 wins is the call.
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Cincinnati Reds: Over 77.5 -111/Under 77.5 -109
Perhaps Dusty Baker was not such an idiot after all. Baker led the Reds to three playoff berths in his last four seasons but was fired for not going all the way. Bryan Price had a rough76-86 rookie season as Baker’s replacement. The Reds did not stand pat in the offseason and acquired outfielder Marlon Byrd from the Philadelphia Phillies to add much needed power to the lineup. We see the Reds as a bargain stock that has plenty of potential upside. The key is Joey Votto staying healthy and at his normal production levels, and for a bounce back season from Jay Bruce, who struggled through knee issues last year. A lack of pitching depth and consistency at on base percentage remains the biggest threat for a return to the post season. We think the 77.5 is a bargain, all things considered and will call for the Reds to go OVER 77.5 wins.
Milwaukee Brewers: Over 78.5 -120/Under 78.5 -110
Just as their bland uniforms suggest, this is a team that is average and nondescript. Milwaukee was in playoff position for the first five months of last year before their lack of offensive depth finally caught up to them in a stunning 9-17 collapse down the stretch run. This is a franchise that has two playoff appearances since 1982, and is simply impossible to take seriously after failing to close in 2014. But while they will not win the NL Central they are just average enough to be a potential bargain at 78.5. Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez are enough to keep Milwaukee competitive but nothing beyond. OVER 78.5 wins is the call.
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Pittsburgh Pirates: Over 84.5 -117/Under 84.5 -102
The loss of catcher Russell Martin to the Toronto Blue Jays is a big worry, as a quality catcher remains one of the most important ingredients for success and a playoff berth. Martin added a .400 on base percentage and strong defense which will not be easy to replace. Although there is not a dominant pitcher on the Pirates starting rotation, the staff does force a lot of ground balls, An outfield of Andrew McCutcheon, Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco is among the best in the game. Pittsburgh is a strong defensive club and is well managed with Clint Hurdle. It is great to see Pittsburgh become a baseball town again with its perfect setting of PNC Park. OVER 84.5 wins is the call.
St. Louis Cardinals: Over 87.5+110/Under 87.5 -110
This is quality blue chip stock if for no other reason than the Cardinals are among the best run franchises in all of sports, with 11 playoff appearances in the last 14 years. St. Louis has won at least 88 games in four consecutive seasons and five out of the last six years. Right hander Jordan Walden and right fielder Jason Heyward arrive from Atlanta. Heyward is a gold glove right fielder that could prove to have plenty of upside. Closer Trevor Rosenthal must improve his control as he blew six saves and lost six games in 2014. Adam Wainwright remains one of the top starting pitchers in the game. Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday and Jhonny Peralta are proven veterans but with windows that will soon close. OVER 87.5 is an easy call for us to make.
