The Navy Midshipmen (-6.5) are heading southwest to face their AAC counterpart SMU Mustangs at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Kickoff for this showdown is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to ESNN.
Navy Midshipmen vs. SMU Mustangs Betting Preview
SMU is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 6.5 points in this Saturday AAC matchup. The Midshipmen are also receiving -270 moneyline odds while the Mustangs are +210. Should one team can catch a lucky break early it would create a solid in-game betting opportunity. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 67 points.
The Midshipmen are 1-2 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 3.9 units so far. The team has posted an O/U mark of 1-1. The Mustangs are down 1.0 unit for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 1-2 ATS and have an O/U record of 1-2.
The Midshipmen are 2-1 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against AAC opponents. The Mustangs are 0-3 SU overall and 0-0 SU in conference play.
The Midshipmen are coming off a resounding 51-21 victory over Lehigh last week. the Midshipmen completed 6-of-14 passes for 145 yards and one interception. Malcolm Perry went two-for-9 for 65 yards and one interception while Garret Lewis completed four-of-five for 80 yards. Perry (223 rushing yards on 19 attempts, three TDs) also led the ground attack. CJ Williams (three receptions, 104 yards) and Ryan Mitchell (one catch, 24 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
One week ago, Michigan got the victory against this SMU crew by a score of 45-20. As a group, the Mustangs collectively completed 19-of-34 passes for 209 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. William Brown went 11-for-17 for 82 yards and two touchdowns while Ben Hicks was seven-of-16 for 113 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Xavier Jones (50 yards on 13 rush attempts) spearheaded the running attack while James Proche (11 receptions, 166 yards, two TDs) and Braeden West (three catches, six yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
Navy has run the ball on 84.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while SMU has a rush percentage of 46.1 percent. The Midshipmen have produced 358 rush yards per game and have 14 scores on the ground this year. The Mustangs are logging 82 rush yards per game and have two total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Midshipmen could hold an edge when it comes to quarterback protection. Their offensive line has allowed just 13 sacks while their D-line registered 16 sacks. The Mustangs offensive line has allowed 23 sacks and their defense has created only 31 sacks.
The Midshipmen offense has tallied 94 yards per game in the air overall and has only one passing scores so far. The Mustangs have produced 191 pass yards per contest and have five total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, Navy should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 160 rush yards and 252 pass yards per game. The SMU defense has allowed 284.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 168.0 yards per game on the ground. The Midshipmen are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.98 to opponents, while the Mustangs have given up an ugly 8.74 ANY/A.
Offensively, Lewis is up to 146 passing yards on the year. The signal-caller has completed 64 percent of his 14 attempts with zero passing scores and has yet to throw an interception. Lewis has a sparkling 10.43 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 13.29 over the last two games.
Ben Hicks has completed 19-of-40 passes for 365 yards, three TDs and two INTs for SMU. His ANY/A sits at 6.26 for the season and 2.77 across his last two outings.
When these two teams faced one another a year ago, Navy won by a field goal 43-40.
Free NCAA Betting Tip: Navy Midshipmen at SMU Mustangs
SU Winner – SMU, ATS Winner – SMU, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
Navy was favored by 33 points in its last game. The team failed to cover that spread in the 51-21 win over Lehigh.
As a team, Navy has averaged 5.5 yards per carry over its last two outings.
SMU has averaged 3.8 YPC over its last two.
SMU has lost one fumble this season while Navy has lost two.
SMU was favored by 37 points in its last game and the O/U going into it was 55. The over cashed and SMU did not cover in that 45-20 defeat to Michigan.
Over its last three matchups, SMU is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Midshipmen offense has recorded one pass play of 40 or more yards, while the Mustangs have put up three such plays.
The Navy defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while SMU has given up three such plays.
The Navy offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while SMU has created two such run.
The Midshipmen defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Mustangs have given up one such run.
The Navy defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs five times this season. SMU has recorded three sacks.
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