This week’s game between the No. 16 Navy Midshipmen (9-1) and the No. 21 Houston Cougars (10-1) has the makings of a pivotal matchup. This game will feature the AAC’s third-leading passer, Greg Ward Jr. (2,194 yards, 13 TDs), and the second-leading rusher, Keenan Reynolds (1,009 yards, 18 TDs). It will begin Friday, Nov 27 at 12:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on ABC.
Houston lost a close one to Connecticut 20-17 last week. Kyle Postma had a solid outing, racking up 52 total yards. He got most of his yards running the ball, registering 52 yards. Chance Allen also had a big game with 105 receiving yards and a TD on six receptions. Navy is hoping for another victory like last week’s performance, when it routed Tulsa 44-21. Jamir Tillman had a good game for the Midshipmen, totaling one reception for 39 yards and one TD. Toneo Gulley added 70 rushing yards and a TD on one attempt.
Houston is a slight one-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is presently unavailable.
The Cougars enter the game with records of 10-1 Straight Up (SU) and 6-5 Against The Spread (ATS) this season. Over their last five games, the Cougars have records of 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS. The Cougars have an efficient passing attack that has a completion percentage of 66.2%, good enough for 16th in the country. Turning to the Cougars defense, a few key spots could be deciding factors this week. The Midshipmen will be matching up against a stout Houston pass defense, which only allowed 237.4 passing yards over their last five matchups. Houston’s special teams are one of its strengths. They earn 110.6 return yards per game, putting them 20th in Division I.
On the other side, the Midshipmen have 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS records this season. The Midshipmen went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS over the last five games. The Cougars may be catching the Midshipmen at the wrong time. They have found their groove on the ground, averaging 361.4 rushing yards during the past five games. The Navy pass defense has given teams headaches during the past five games as well. During that time, opponents have gained an average of only 235.6 passing yards against this intimidating bunch. If the Cougars aren’t careful with ball security against Navy’s defense, they are going to be in some trouble. That defense has recovered the most fumbles on the season with 1.4 per game. The Midshipmen generally save their best for last, averaging 10.9 points in the fourth quarter. Navy fans don’t normally have much to complain about when it comes to the refs. The Midshipmen record very few penalties, ranking second with only 3.4 per game.
Predictions: SU Winner – Houston, ATS Winner – Houston
Notes
Houston is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 6 games.
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.
Both teams are 8-0 SU when leading at the end of the third quarter.
Per FBS ratings, Houston has an advantage in the passing game. Its offensive passing game (ranked 39th in the country) will face the 63rd-ranked pass defense of Navy, while its 103rd-ranked pass defense will look to limit the 127th-ranked aerial attack of the Midshipmen.
