Unlike the previously reviewed NBA Most Valuable Player award, where James Harden almost certainly could be crowned even before the season is over, the Rookie of the Year isn’t that straightforward. Sure, after 21 weeks of the regular season, there are clear favorites to snatch a prestigious award, and pundits weren’t always right about the winners at this point of the season.
We’ll try and make a case in this article for the few best rooks, taking a look at the value on the betting market. The timing is right, and if the option is valuable, there’s no reason why you shouldn’t look up for the odds at your favorite sportsbook.
Fultz or Ball – what are the Celtics thinking?
Let’s quickly rewind to the last year’s draft. The Celtics lucked out and were supposed to pick first, but traded away the right to the Sixers, who had been accumulating high profile talent like stamps in recent years. In a draft year where the big dilemma was is Markelle Fultz better than Lonzo Ball, the Celtics purposely slid to the third pick, flummoxing most of the mainstream media.
Lonzo Ball was paired with the Lakers so early that no other scenario remained viable. Even with the Sixers picking Markelle Fultz because they wanted to make the best decision for their franchise, Big Baller UCLA star was the odds-on favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award. Of course, there’s was this Simmons guy who was redshirted by the Sixers, but it was unknown whether he could fit at the point guard position and how efficient he could be after such a long break and surgery.
The class was thought to be strong, but the pool wasn’t given much consideration at first. Boston’s selection Jayson Tatum, point guards DeAaron Fox and Dennis Smith Jr. or Finnish smooth stroking Lauri Markannen were obscure option, and nobody really talked anything about the Jazz #13 Donovan Mitchell or Lakers’ other pick, Kyle Kuzma.
At the All-Star
Ben Simmons was -2000 odds on favorite at the turn of the calendar year and looked as much a runaway favorite as Harden is with the MVP. The Sixers young star proved to be everything he was advertised and more. The kid got a triple-double in his fourth game, for God’s sake. Sure, he can’t shoot, but who cares?! Simmons posted 18-7-7 averages coming into the All-Star break, and if this selection would be any fair, he’d join a very thin group of players who got into the All-Star in their first season.
Yes, Simmons was a snub, and despite his commendable demeanor, he wasn’t even silent about it. The numbers were great, and the Philadelphia 76ers are finally back to the relevancy.
Even with his number declining a bit since in the last two months, Ben Simmons remains the top favorite to win Rookie of the Year award at -200, and deservedly so. The price is really thin though, but considering the dismal value a month ago, it doesn’t look too bad if you are a strong believer. However, one unlikely player has closed down the gap.
You can laugh all you want, but we preached Donovan Mitchell should be at the All-Star game as well. He might not have the same numbers as Simmons did, and few felt like he was snubbed, but the Louisville product truly belonged. Of course, the NBA realized how flashy Mitchell is, so he was named to the Dunk Contest (although only after Aaron Gordon got hurt) and showcased his hoopla by winning the competition. This, from the player who has recently become the fastest player in the NBA history to 150 made three-pointers. Originally drafted by Denver, and traded to Utah, Mitchell now leads all rookies in scoring and has carried the Jazz team with his dynamic style of play to the brink of a surprising playoff appearance.
Votes for Simmons
It comes to who gets the most votes for the Rookie of the Year award, and Simmons already has a certain number of voters that won’t consider anyone else at #1. No matter what stat you show them, video clip or other arguments, you won’t be able to change their perception. Those are not few, as Simmons is the real thing. At moment, Simmons sure votes are in vast majority compared to the rest of the field. At -200, it should be like that, but this doesn’t mean that he’ll win.
Votes for Mitchell, and others
Donovan Mitchell is the closest to Simmons with +200, and the trend is also telling. After being completely off the board to start the season, his chances steadily increased to this point. Even with the decline in his production after the All-Star break, his odds doubled since January. Remember, Simmons did nothing to hurt his own chances. Mitchell is good. He’s scoring 19.8 points to lead all rookie (and all Jazz players), along with relatively modest 3.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists. Compared to Simmons main numbers, it doesn’t stand out. Still, scoring is oh-so-important in this league. If we balance out the minutes and show the comparison between the two top rooks, it’s easy to see why Mitchell will get some number one votes:
| per 36min | pts | rebs | asts | stls | blks | fg% | 3ptm | ft% |
| Mitchell | 21.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | .436 | 2.6 | .842 |
| Simmons | 17.0 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | .538 | 0.0 | .576 |
While Simmons is padding style sheets with boards and assists, Mitchell’s role and position are different. This kid will score in a variety of ways. Yes, Simmons’ field goal percentage is superior as well, but that only because he hasn’t even tried to hit a three, let alone hit some. Simmons is smart to understand that it’s not his forte, but then again, he had almost a full year of practice to make the three-point shot a part of his arsenal, so 0-of-10 for the season is laughable – Nets’ defensive anchor center Jarrett Allen is 3-for-11. Evil tongues would say that Simmons should first learn to shoot free throws. The point is, as good as Simmons has been, he isn’t untouchable, and Mitchell has a case.
As for the others, the votes Ball, Kuzma, and Tatum will get will like be to the detriment of Mitchell, more than Simmons. Ball is currently at +6600 and isn’t even the best rookie on his own team, as Kuzma did the most of his opportunities and battled himself up to +2500 to win the Rookie of the Year award. Tatum has been super steady – he’s the first Celtics rookie to score 15 or more points in 30 games in a season since Paul Pierce, and he’s playing with a maturity beyond his age. At +2000, he’s too far behind to be seriously considered but should be proud of what he did. He certainly makes Celtics front office looks good as Fultz is ‘Processed’ and Ball struggled to justify a superstar pomp that surrounded him.
The Undecided
These group of voters could turn any bet on Mitchell into gold, so we’ll have a word on how they could decide when the time comes. Obviously, the last month of the season will play a role. Making a strong final push could make or break both Simmons’ and Mitchell’s Rookie of the Year campaigns. Simmons is in the better position as his Philadelphia 76ers are unlikely to slide below the playoff slots line, as there are no real sub-.500 challengers. However, if their postseason appearance comes into jeopardy and Simmons hits a wall, this could open the door for Mitchell. Eight of the remaining 16 Jazz games are against tanking teams, so it’s a great opportunity to leave a good impression and squeeze into the playoff position in packed Western Conference.
No matter who your guy is, consider the value. Simmons is a stronger case, but the return is poor, while Mitchell is a bit more of a gamble, but at a good price.
