Let’s immediately get to the point. Anthony Davis and Stephen Curry sprained their ankles, but the injuries won’t cost them more than a few games. The Warriors have beaten the Spurs without Curry, leaning heavily on Durant’s offense, and they are capable of sustaining his absence short term due to their depth. The Pelicans aren’t. Ever since Cousins went down with an injury of his own, Davis has been shouldering the load as a true NBA superstar. Without him, the Pelicans are fodding material. Other superstars in news are Kawhi Leonard, who is adamant to return this month but has no timetable, and Devin Booker, who’s in no hurry to play for the tanking Phoenix Suns.
In fact, almost all the cellar-dwelling teams are looking at any discomfort or light injury through the magnifying glass, so there are a number of NBA players who will miss time. Let’s list the few most important.
Sacramento is holding out Fox, Labissiere, and Cauley-Stein. Fournier and Gordon are missing for the Orlando Magic. Phoenix won’t play Booker, Warren and Josh Jackson. The Grizzlies are holding back Gasol, Parsons, and Evans. Dallas will sit out Smith Jr. and Matthews from time to time. The Hawks are randomly picking their roster every other game.
All of this can be packed together as these players aren’t really valuable as much as they were throughout the course of this season. Their teams are in a specific situation, and the bettors should handle the tank-maniacs differently from the NBA teams that actually have something to play for. So, let’s turn our attention to the NBA players who are going to impact the market.
Jaylen Brown (BOS) took a scary hit after a clumsy fall and earned himself a week of going through a concussion protocol. Brown’s statistics aren’t jaw-dropping, so he’s often overlooked piece in the Celtics machinery. He’s a two-way player who will be missed. The Celtics can replace his offensive output with the dynamic guard Terry Rozier, and his defense with Marcus Smart, but can’t have them both on the court at the same time (with Irving). The bench unit has been known for occasional lapses, so the injury will have a ripple effect across the rotation. Bettors should adjust the Celtics numbers by 1.1 spread points while Brown is out. No need to mess with the total points.
Rodney Hood (CLE) was never durable, so with a mention of a lower back strain that’ll cost him at least one game, the bettors can count on the Cavaliers being shorthanded a bit longer. The books will likely adjust their lines to account for the injury, but there’s actually replacement level impact that Hood has had on the Cavs results. This is a rare opportunity to have Cleveland valuable enough to bet, so jump on each opportunity. The total points won’t be affected at all.
Curry will miss a few games, but it’s unlikely that the oddsmakers are going to play it wrong. McCaw and Iguodala are also out, so the Warriors will have to play Nick Young and their big men more. Those two forced moves offset the impact on the total points, but the bettors should still lower the totals lines by 4 points, and Warriors spread rating by 2.5.
The Lakers aren’t tanking yet, and Brandon Ingram’s groin injury is for real, but he surely won’t be rushed back. More minutes for Kuzma and Caldwell-Pope will not hurt the Lakers much. No need to react to this.
Finally, John Wall is doing some serious work and is closing to return from the knee injury that forced him to miss past six weeks of action. The Wizards did more than just cope without him, and he’s reportedly looking strong in practice, so the bettors should be aggressive at grabbing any value on Washington side. As for the totals, the Wizards unders will likely be more valuable upon his return, so look for those.
