Betting on sports is difficult. At the start of a new season, it can be particularly hard to guess which team will win the championship when all is said and done. Furthermore, on any given night, you might not know whether the Sacramento Kings will cover a 4-point spread against the Atlanta Hawks. But you might have a good feel for one specific team – or a few specific teams – and how many games they will win over the course of a full season.
If that sounds like you, betting on season win totals is a betting arena to consider.
Are you convinced the Philadelphia 76ers’ late surge last year was misleading? Perhaps betting under the 54.5 line is the right move. Or maybe you’re convinced a team underachieved last season. Think the Denver Nuggets are due for a surge? Perhaps you want to pick over the line of 47.5. Either way, betting on season win totals is a popular method for gamblers interested in predicting what will happen throughout the season. This gives bettors a larger margin for error than betting on individual game lines.
On this page, we prove an in-depth look at what season win totals are, what factors you should consider before betting on them, and what the season win totals are for all 30 NBA teams.
What are Season Win Totals?
In most futures wagers, bettors are trying to predict the winner of a division title or league championship. But betting on futures also includes the possibility of wagering on a team’s win total. In this situation, bettors take a number provided by the house (i.e., the sportsbook) and predict whether the given team will win more or fewer than (over or under) that number.
The bet is decided much like a bet on an individual game total. If the total includes a half-number, such as 40.5 or 50.5, then there is a clear winner every time. So, if a team with a total of 40.5 wins 41 games, the over wins (41 > 40.5). If a team with a total of 29.5 wins 29 games, the under wins (29 < 29.5).
When the line is a whole number, there is a possibility that a push will occur. For instance, if a team’s season win total is 41 and it goes exactly 41-41, then the bet is a push (line = win total). That means the original bet is returned, but with no additional winnings on top of it.
Usually, the house takes a slightly higher rake in win-total bets. Instead of a 10 percent rake (each side is -110) on a single-game bet, the line might be -115 or -120 to each side. It’s set up this way because bettors generally have a higher margin for error with a full-season bet than with a single-game or futures bet – this takes a small percentage of risk away from the sportsbook.
Strategies for Betting Season Win Totals
There are many factors to consider when you bet on NBA season win totals. The obvious first step is to look at how many games a team won the previous year (for example, the Lakers won 35). Then decide what might change this year, and why (the Lakers will likely win more games because they added LeBron James).
Bettors should be careful to dissect how much talent a team loses, returns, and adds from the previous season. They should also be aware of any coaching changes or other factors, such as an offseason injury, locker-room turmoil, or a contract dispute with a key player, which could change the way a team plays.
One often-overlooked factor is a team’s strength of schedule. The difficulty of a team’s schedule can make or break its season – and, of course, its win total. Given the division setup, some teams will play easier schedules. For example, the Raptors, Celtics, and 76ers are in the same division, so they’ll play each other more frequently. That figures to be much more challenging than the Wizards playing against lesser competition in the Southeast. Take note of who has an easier or more difficult schedule, as that’s important for betting futures.
And finally, as in any sports betting venture, a certain amount luck is involved. Injuries during the season – especially injuries to an All-Star – can ruin any team’s season. Of course, if you bet on the under, that might be a good thing.
There is a larger margin for error with season win totals, because good and bad luck tends to even out more over the course of an 82-game season than it does in a single game. That makes season win totals a good place to look for value – if you’re willing to let a sportsbook hold your money for the course of an entire season.
2018-19 NBA Season Win Totals
Below are the betting lines for win totals for all 30 NBA teams, sorted from most expected wins (Golden State) to fewest (Atlanta).
Golden State Warriors 63.5
Boston Celtics 58.5
Houston Rockets 55.5
Philadelphia 76ers 54.5
Toronto Raptors 54.5
Oklahoma City Thunder 49.5
Los Angeles Lakers 49
Utah Jazz 49
Denver Nuggets 47.5
Milwaukee Bucks 46.5
Indiana Pacers 46.5
New Orleans Pelicans 44.5
Washington Wizards 44.5
San Antonio Spurs 44.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 44.5
Portland Trail Blazers 42.5
Miami Heat 41.5
Detroit Pistons 38.5
Los Angeles Clippers 36.5
Charlotte Hornets 35.5
Dallas Mavericks 34.5
Memphis Grizzlies 33.5
Brooklyn Nets 32.5
Cleveland Cavaliers 31.5
Orlando Magic 31
New York Knicks 30.5
Phoenix Suns 28.5
Chicago Bulls 28.5
Sacramento Kings 26
Atlanta Hawks 24.5
2017-18 NBA Season Win Totals
Below are last year’s regular season win totals for all 30 NBA teams, sorted from the most wins (Houston) to fewest (Phoenix).
Houston Rockets 65
Toronto Raptors 59
Golden State Warriors 58
Boston Celtics 55
Philadelphia 76ers 52
Cleveland Cavaliers 50
Portland Trail Blazers 49
Indiana Pacers 48
New Orleans Pelicans 48
Oklahoma City Thunder 48
Utah Jazz 48
Minnesota Timberwolves 47
San Antonio Spurs 47
Denver Nuggets 46
Miami Heat 44
Milwaukee Bucks 44
Washington Wizards 43
Los Angeles Clippers 42
Detroit Pistons 39
Charlotte Hornets 36
Los Angeles Lakers 35
New York Knicks 29
Brooklyn Nets 28
Chicago Bulls 27
Sacramento Kings 27
Orlando Magic 25
Dallas Mavericks 24
Atlanta Hawks 24
Memphis Grizzlies 22
Phoenix Suns 21