For as good of a season that the Houston Rockets had last year, the San Antonio Spurs were much better overall, winning the Southwest division by 6.0 games. However, the addition of Chris Paul to the Rockets is truly a gamechanger. Aside from the Rockets and Spurs, the remaining three teams in the Southwest division, the Memphis Grizzlies, New Orleans Pelicans, and Dallas Mavericks, will likely remain as the bottom-three teams. The Mavericks are looking to rebuild while the Grizzlies and Pelicans will remain decent teams but no where near the top of the powerhouse Western Conference.
One Team That Will Overachieve: New Orleans Pelicans
Regular Season Win Total: 39.5
The Spurs and Grizzlies somehow overachieve and surprise us year after year, so this is sort of expected. By adding Paul, the Rockets are already expected to overachieve. That leaves us with either the Pelicans or Mavericks, and I’m going with the Pelicans. Anthony Davis is a superstar and if he can remain healthy for the entire season, he’ll be putting up huge numbers for the Pelicans, without a doubt. DeMarcus Cousins was traded to the Pelicans last season, which sent shockwaves around the league. While he wasn’t nearly as effective after the trade, Cousins is still a star in his own right and should have figured out a way to complement Davis. The addition of Rajon Rondo will bring a much-needed playmaker to the Pelicans and Ian Clark should provide a big boost off the bench for them as well. I’m expecting Davis and Cousins to have solid seasons, which will fuel the entire Pelicans team to post a better record than expected.
One Team That Will Disappoint: Dallas Mavericks
Regular Season Win Total: 35.5
This one is difficult. None of the five teams in the Southwest division are particularly prone to disappointing. I can’t really go with the Spurs or the Rockets, as they have Kawhi Leonard along with Paul and James Harden respectively. I’ve already picked the Pelicans to overachieve, which leaves me with the Grizzlies and Mavericks. The Grizzlies, in the past few seasons, have consistently overachieve despite sustaining injuries to key players and having their roster ravaged by injuries to multiple players at once. As a result, I’ll go with the Mavericks as the one team that will disappoint. Dirk Nowitzki is approaching his 40th birthday and with his playing time guaranteed, I’m not sure if this will be a good or bad thing for the Mavericks in the grand scheme of things. Wesley Matthews is on the wrong side of 30 years old and he’s just not the same player after his Achilles injury. Harrison Barnes, while a solid role player, is no clear close to being the number one option for a team. Seth Curry, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Nerlens Noel are simply clogs. Dennis Smith Jr. was the favourite to win the Rookie of the Year Award among his peers after a spectacular Summer League run, but I’m not biting. On paper, the Mavericks aren’t that good, and in reality, they likely won’t be either.
Best Bet To Win The Division: Houston Rockets
The Southwest division is clearly going to either the Rockets or Spurs. While Tony Parker will be out for the first bit of the season, the Spurs have added Rudy Gay during the offseason, with the rest of their team all returning from last season. Leonard is a straight-up stud and should have himself another dominant season yet again. However, the rest of the Spurs roster is aging, and fast. LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol, Manu Ginobili, David Lee, and Parker are all way past their primes and Gay’s Achilles injury to end his season last year doesn’t look too promising either. Leonard will have to carry the Spurs in a big way in order for them to win the Southwest division, but with Gregg Popovich’s strict management of his team’s personnel and respective playing times, I don’t think Leonard will have the freedom to totally dominate, which leaves us to with the Rockets. The Rockets are basically returning the same roster from last season, and have added a player who truly makes his teammates better in Paul. The combination of Paul and Harden is downright scary and they also have solid contributors in Ryan Anderson, Trevor Ariza, Clint Capela, Eric Gordon, Nene Hilario, Luc Mbah a Moute, and PJ Tucker.
The Rockets will jack up plenty of threes, have a good group of capable defenders, and have two superstars in Harden and Paul. They should take the Southwest Division crown at an even payout, although it’ll be a tightly contested race against the Spurs.
Odds To Win The Southwest Division
Dallas Mavericks +8500
Houston Rockets -105
Memphis Grizzlies +5000
New Orleans Pelicans +1500
San Antonio Spurs +100
The 2017 NBA futures are out. It’s been a wild offseason already, but keep an eye on the betting lines as they move around at Diamond Sportsbook! Get the latest NBA betting lines right here.
