NBA Division Standings for Bettors – Eastern Conference

The traditional way of looking at the NBA standing means very little to a professional bettor. If anything, it could be distracting, as it’s hiding the market expectations and thus the value certain teams have, or lack. In fact, the two finalists from previous three years are among the worst five teams in the league to bet on, despite retaining their status as the elite teams, holding no.2 and no.3 seeds in their respective conferences. Bad teams aren’t necessarily good options either, so reversing the table would not do the trick.

We’ve already introduced this concept in our overview of the Western Conference a few days ago, and now we’re going to take a look at the NBA’s recently weaker part – the Eastern Conference. There are legitimate 8 playoff teams in the East this year, and while not all of them have a contending capacity, it seems that the conference has bridged the gap, coming closer than ever in the previous decade, if not more.

With only about one-eighth of the season to go, looking at how unexpected was this for the betting market could help you realize where the value will be placed come playoff time, without the distracting nature of the late season games that mean all the world to some, and not much to others.

Southeast Division

Each of the three Eastern Conference divisions has at least one big disappointing team, and Southeast actually has two. The Hawks were supposed to be very bad, the Heat are better than expected and the Wizards can also feel good about their season, as they’re likely to retain the division championship even with a long absence from one of their stars. The Hornets and the Magic have not performed near their potential.

You’d broke even betting Miami all season, while all the others would lead to a significant loss. The market never adjusted well to Wall’s impact for the Wizards, so they slid down the table. The Magic are somewhat better than described as the punters were quick to fade them with the history of a low number of wins with the similar roster.

Not a good start for the premise that the East is on par with the West. Here’s how the Southeast teams’ ATS records look like since the All-Star.

What we’re seeing, it pretty much the same as we had in our Western Conference analysis. Charlotte’s climb in the standings is an anomaly – the combined winning percentage of their post All-Star opponents is 0.429, as they’ve faced Brooklyn three times, all other non-playoff conference rivals at least once, and had Memphis and Phoenix for the good measure.

Central Division

Central division always gives one true contender. Before the Cavaliers, there were periods of Bulls and Pistons dominance, while the Pacers came close several times. The Bucks hoped that they’re next in line, but the young core would not transform into the real contender this season. With all the troubles, Cleveland still maintains as the most serious team when it comes to playoff aspirations.

The ATS standings tell a different story.

Much like with the Warriors, the bookies were very much aware of the public appeal the Cavaliers hold, so they’ve faded them right from the start of the NBA season. Still, it’s the sole reason their backers would lose a good chunk of their bank betting on them this season. The Cavaliers truly struggled to perform throughout the season. The Bucks weren’t much better either, and are a relatively larger disappointment since they had no significant injuries nor departures (unless you count a self-imposed Kidd firing). They are a playoff team in the East, but not the challenger pundits dubbed them for. Detroit is another team that underperformed. Chicago was supposed to be bad, so the books managed to find a balance, while Indiana media expectations were so wrong that they were the third best team to put your money on this season.

Now let’s see how the teams fared after the NBA All-Star break.

The only change in the standings is that the Bucks dropped to the last position, but it’s only because the Cavaliers managed to cover in all three games since Kevin Love returned. If you followed our Betting Newsflash advice to jump on them, you’re welcome.

Atlantic Division

Not long ago, this division was nicked the Titanic division, but it’ll send three teams to the NBA playoffs, all currently among the top four in conference standings. The Knicks and the Nets remain among the weakest teams in the NBA league, even with the genuine efforts to change things up (well, at least for the Brooklyn franchise). The Raptors, the Celtics, and the Sixers all beat their surmise.

As for the betting standings, here’s how the table looks for the course of the season.

If you had been betting on Atlantic teams this season, well done. Top four in this table were also all among the best 10 bets in 2017/18 so far. Thanks to the terrific first half, Boston is league leaders when it comes to ATS standings. Brooklyn SU record has not improved much, but they’ve closed the gap to the rest of the league, as evidenced by the almost respectable -4.1 points losing margin. Even the Knicks fared well until blatantly tanking after Porzingis got hurt.

Can the profitable teams maintain their value this deep in the season? Let’s look how they performed after the All-Star.

With minor variations, post-All-Star records match the prior success rate for all the five teams. Boston’s depth was underestimated all season, and again after the most recent flurry of injuries. Toronto kept the 50-50 ball even with going 0-5 ATS in their last five games.

So,  despite the popular belief that the betting on the NBA is more profitable in the early path of the season, there’s still time and ways to find a dollar for your dollar. Start with looking at the right type of standings and we hope that we have helped you identify the most overlooked good teams as the playoffs are right around the corner.