The traditional way of looking at the NBA standing means very little to a professional bettor. If anything, it could be distracting, as it’s hiding the market expectations and thus the value certain teams have, or lack. In fact, the two finalists from previous three years are among the worst five teams in the league to bet on, despite retaining their status as the elite teams, holding no.2 and no.3 seeds in their respective conferences. Bad teams aren’t necessarily good options either, so reversing the table would not do the trick.
Therefore, we are making our own standings, separated to divisions for easier focus, with the success rate against the spread being the sole sorting criteria. Today, we’ll take a look at the NBA Western Conference divisions, listing teams by their seasonal success, and also since the All-Star week.
With only about one-eighth of the season to go, this perspective could help you realize where the value will be placed come playoff time, without the distracting nature of the late season games that mean all the world to some, and not much to others.
Southwest Division
Usually a very strong division in NBA and for the bettors, the Southwest Division has been changed this year. The Rockets are taking it from the Spurs, who, alongside the New Orleans Pelicans could still wind up in the playoffs. The Mavericks maintained their sub-average level, while the Grizzlies plummeted. Let’s take a look how this development impacted the season ATS standings.
| Southwest Division – season to date | ||
| New Orleans | 39-32-1 | 0.542 |
| San Antonio | 38-32-2 | 0.528 |
| Houston | 37-33-1 | 0.521 |
| Dallas | 36-34-1 | 0.507 |
| Memphis | 29-40-2 | 0.408 |
The top four are closely packed together, despite the feeling that the Rockets are dominating both SU and ATS scene. If you calculate the bookies’ juice, betting Dallas would also lead you to a small loss, but the playoff-bound teams would provide a small profit.
The table that will look only at the teams’ ATS records after the All-Star break instantly explains why we chose to include this part of the season.
| Southwest Division – post All-Star | ||
| New Orleans | 10-5-0 | 0.667 |
| Houston | 9-5-0 | 0.643 |
| San Antonio | 8-5-0 | 0.615 |
| Dallas | 7-5-0 | 0.583 |
| Memphis | 4-10-0 | 0.400 |
The smaller sample is more susceptible to variations and chance, but it looks like almost all the profit or loss either came at this portion of the season or replicated it very well.
Pacific Division
Golden State has been the dominant team in this division in previous years, so it’s no surprise that they are head and shoulders above all the Pacific rivals. The Lakers, the Kings, and the Suns have also maintained their lottery status, while the Clippers did fairly well to stay in the playoff race with the number of changes their roster endured.
The ATS standings tell a different story.
| Pacific Division – season to date | ||
| L.A. Clippers | 38-32-1 | 0.535 |
| L.A. Lakers | 37-33-0 | 0.529 |
| Sacramento | 34-35-3 | 0.472 |
| Phoenix | 31-39-2 | 0.431 |
| Golden State | 30-40-1 | 0.423 |
Betting the two Los Angeles teams would enrich your account a bit, while you’d suffer backing the other three. These standings look much like the actual one, except that the Warriors have gone from the top to the bottom of the list. There are multiple reasons for this – they aren’t playing as well as in the previous seasons, the injuries have been more frequent, and, most importantly, the bookies made the best of their public image, killing any glimpse of value on them to turn profit on those unsuspecting amateur punters that want to gamble and have little understanding of the industry.
Now let’s see how the teams fared after the NBA All-Star break.
| Pacific Division – post All-Star | ||
| Sacramento | 9-6-0 | 0.600 |
| L.A. Lakers | 7-6-0 | 0.529 |
| L.A. Clippers | 7-8-0 | 0.467 |
| Phoenix | 4-9-0 | 0.308 |
| Golden State | 4-9-0 | 0.308 |
Again, we can see that these last 15 or so games have either made the difference for all the teams. The Clippers are limping a bit and the Kings have improved to help their cause, but it’s close enough.
Northwest Division
The Northwest Division of the NBA has been the most entertaining one to watch for the competitiveness and unpredictability. All five teams seemed equally capable of winning it at some point. We might end up with all five teams in the playoffs, or, at least four.
As for the betting standings, here’s how the table looks for the course of the season.
| Northwest Division – season to date | ||
| Portland | 40-26-5 | 0.563 |
| Utah | 38-33-0 | 0.535 |
| Minnesota | 33-37-2 | 0.458 |
| Denver | 32-37-3 | 0.438 |
| Oklahoma City | 31-42-0 | 0.425 |
This table illustrates that the betting success ratio is not tied to how good a team is, but instead, to how the team is perceived. The Portland Trail Blazers and the Utah Jazz were not supposed to be good, so despite their equally good performances, the market kept the initial belief and it resulted in nice profits who were able to shed that mantra. On the other side, Minnesota, Denver and OKC all added All-Star players, raising their resume more than the actual performance.
Can the two profitable teams maintain their value this deep in the season? Let’s look how they performed after the All-Star.
| Northwest Division – post All-Star | ||
| Portland | 12-1-0 | 0.923 |
| Utah | 7-6-0 | 0.538 |
| Minnesota | 5-6-0 | 0.455 |
| Oklahoma City | 6-8-0 | 0.428 |
| Denver | 4-10-0 | 0.400 |
Portland’s impressive winning streak not only pushed them into sole possession of the no. 3 spot in the West, but also to the second best ATS record. Their cover rate is unsustainable, but it still follows the pattern. The remaining four teams latest period mirrors the entire season almost ideally.
It means that despite the popular belief that the betting on the NBA is more profitable in the early part of the season, there’s still time and ways to find a dollar for your dollar. Start with looking at the right type of standings.
