NBA Finals Props Preview: A ton of series props to sift through. I have listed 8 that stand out to me.
NBA Finals Props Bet #1: Series result after 3 games.
Choices: Cleveland Cavaliers lead 2-1 (+258), Cleveland Cavaliers lead 3-0 (+2000), Golden State Warriors lead 2-1 (-105), Golden State Warriors lead 3-0 (+260).
My pick: Golden State leads 2-1 (-105).
There are two likely outcomes for the first three games. The first outcome will be the home team winning all three games. The second outcome is that the teams will split at Golden State and the Warriors will win Game 3 at Cleveland. The third likeliest outcome would be the Cavaliers winning Game 3 after a split at Golden State.
Since two out of the three likeliest outcomes have Golden State leading 2-1 after three games, that is my logical choice for this prop.
NBA Finals Props Bet #2: Lawler’s Law (first to 100 points).
Choices: LeBron James (CLE) +175, Kyrie Irving (CLE) +450, Kevin Love (CLE) +1000, Stephen Curry (GS) +300, Kevin Durant (GS) +350, Klay Thompson (GS) +850, Field (any other player) +1600.
My pick: LeBron James (+175).
Barring an injury, this prop looks like a steal to me. We already know that King James is going to play more minutes than any other player in this series. LeBron is averaging 32.5 points per game, 8.0 rebounds per game and 7.0 assists per game this postseason.
James has averaged 32.5 points per game, 12.3 rebounds per game and 8.8 assists per game against Golden State in the previous two NBA Finals series. The wildcards are Curry, Durant and Irving. Any one of these three players could get hot in the first three games and beat Lebron to 100 points.
However, LeBron has been putting his stamp on this postseason. He has scored at least 30 points in 11 of the 13 playoff games Cleveland has played. James will get his points in this series and should be the first player to score 100 points.
NBA Finals Props Bet #3: Most points.
Choices: LeBron James (+125), Kyrie Irving (CLE) +500, Kevin Love (CLE) +1200, Stephen Curry (GS) +350, Kevin Durant (GS) +300, Klay Thompson (GS) +1000, Field (any other player) +2500.
My pick: LeBron James (+125).
Everything I just said for Prop #2 is true for Prop #3 obviously. However, this prop is for most points in the series. It is not a race to be the first player to score 100 points. The longer the series goes, the more secure this prop will be. Why? Because the difference in minutes played gets greater and greater with every passing game between LeBron and all the other players in the series. This one looks easy to me.
NBA Finals Props Bet #4: Most rebounds.
Choices: LeBron James (CLE) +400, Kevin Love (+150), Tristan Thompson (CLE) +325, Stephen Curry (GS) +1400, Kevin Durant (GS) +500, Draymond Green (GS) +400, Field (any other player) +1000.
My Pick: Kevin Love (+150).
This prop could go to any one of three players, all of which are wearing Cleveland uniforms. People may see that LeBron has averaged 12.3 rebounds per game against the Warriors in the Finals the last two series. However, those rebounding numbers are a little skewed. Love did not play at all against Golden State in 2015 and he was banged up in the 2016 Finals, too. He missed one game and played less than 12 minutes in another game in 2016. Love only played 30 minutes three times in the 2016 Finals.
Consequently, LeBron’s rebounding numbers were up in those two NBA Finals series. King James averaged 13.3 rebounds per game in the 2015 Finals where Love did not play at all. LeBron averaged 11.1 rebounds per game in the 2016 Finals with Love not at 100% for 6 of those 7 games.
Thompson helped Lebron pick up a lot of the slack in the 2015 Finals, averaging 11.3 rebounds per game in that series. “TT” is averaging 9.3 rebounds per game in the 2017 playoffs. So he is clearly an option, too.
However, if Love stays healthy for the entire series, he should win this prop. Love is averaging 10.4 rebounds per game this postseason, which is one rebound per game more than Thompson and almost 2.5 more rebounds per game than LeBron.
NBA Finals Props Bet #5: Kevin Durant vs Kyrie Irving for most points in the series.
Choices: Durant (GS) -9.5 points (-120), Irving (CLE) +9.5 points (-110).
My pick: Durant -9.5 points (-120).
I think this prop is a steal, too, as Durant is favored by less than 10 points over Irving for the entire series. Durant has no history in the Finals against the Cavs. He did outscore Irving in both regular season games this season by a total of 15 points despite playing 6 fewer minutes than Irving.
Durant has only played 13 games in the last 3 months due to injuries. However, he has played 9 consecutive games and he has played well in those 9 games. Irving has had some big point totals this postseason. He has scored 37 and 42 points in two of his 13 playoff games. However, those were the only two games Irving has scored more than 28 points this postseason.
Durant will play more minutes in this series as I expect more competitive games. Sure, there is the potential to have a couple of blowouts, but both players will sit during a blowout. Durant will get more shots, therefore he should outscore Irving by 3-to-5 points a game during the series and outscore Irving by 20+ points for the series.
NBA Finals Props Bet #6: Finals outcome.
Choices: Cleveland Cavaliers in 4 (+4000), Cleveland Cavaliers in 5 (+1900), Cleveland Cavaliers in 6 (+570), Cleveland Cavaliers in 7 (+740), Golden State Warriors in 4 (+650), Golden State Warriors in 5 (+280), Golden State in 6 games (+458), Golden State Warriors in 7 (+400).
My pick: Golden State in 6 games (+458).
Vegas believes Golden State will win this series in five games. I think the series will go at least 6, with the potential to go 7 again. With that said, it would not surprise me to see this determined Warriors team win the series in five.
When the Lakers went into the NBA Finals 11-0 in 2001, they lost to the 76ers in overtime in Game 1 before winning the next 4 games. So it is possible that the Warriors can win this in 5 games. However, I just do not see it happening. LeBron is on a mission this postseason and the Cavs are playing their best basketball of the year right now and it is a good thing, too, because Golden State is also playing their best basketball of the season. The Warriors have won 27 of their last 28 games. There is a lot of value in that +458 that I cannot ignore.
NBA Finals Props Bet #7: Andre Iguodala -3.5 three-pointers made.
Choices: Over 3.5 (-195), Under 3.5 (+160).
My pick: Over 3.5 (-195).
This prop opened at -130. The value is obviously lost at this point.
I remember Iguodala having a great NBA Finals series in 2015 against the Cavs. Many people may forget he was MVP of the NBA Finals that year. Warriors Coach Steve Kerr inserted Iguodala into the starting lineup after Golden State fell behind 2-1 in the series. Iggy responded by averaging 20.3 points per game and hitting nine three-pointers as the Warriors won all three of those games to win their first NBA championship in 40 years.
Iguodala hit 14 three-pointers in the 2015 NBA Finals and hit 7 more three-pointers in the 2016 NBA Finals. So taking this prop bet over looks easy, right?
Not so fast kemosabe.
Iggy played a lot more minutes in those two Finals series than he has been during the 2017 playoffs. In fact, left knee soreness kept Iguodala out of Game 2 of the conference finals. He only played about 51 minutes total in that series against the Spurs.
Iguodala was 0-for-18 from three-point land his first 6 playoff games this year and is only 3-for-26 from beyond the arc in 11 games played this postseason. So this over is not automatic. However, Iguodala is a veteran who is not afraid of the big stage.
I cannot see Cleveland doing a lot of game-planning for him. Therefore, Iggy should get enough three-point shots launched to be able to make four of them in this series. Iguodala has a pair of 0-for-6 shooting games from three-point land this postseason. That is good news for the over actually because it means he is not shy about shooting them. I have seen Iguodala wide open the entire postseason beyond the arc. He has passed up several of those shots due to his shooting slump. However, it only takes one made three to regain a shooter’s confidence so if that happens early in this series, then this prop bet will be an easy over.
NBA Finals Props Bet #8: Triple-doubles for LeBron James.
Choices: One (+200), Two (+300), Three (+1000), Four (+2800), Five (+8000), Six (+20,000), Seven (+35,000), None (+125).
My pick: One (+200).
With Love and Irving healthy and Thompson being active on the boards in the playoffs, LeBron has only one triple-double this entire postseason. King James had two triple-doubles in the 2015 NBA Finals and one triple-double in the 2016 NBA Finals. I do not believe the triple-double is a priority or even on his mind. LeBron just wants to win and he is scoring more points this postseason to ensure the Cavs win these games. However, no matter how many games the series goes, James can mess around and accidentally get one triple-double in this series.
Good luck.
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