The Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers have concluded their third NBA Finals in as many seasons. According to the media sources this was the most watched Finals in the last 25 years as the court was packed with generational players, superstars, prolific shooters and fan magnets.
Despite the series ending in just five games, multiple records were broken and few can hold anything against the losing team. The Cavaliers tried their best and it wasn’t enough. Looking at the 1-4 loss, it’s easy to forget that the Eastern Conference champions were almost equally dominant against their playoff rivals prior to the NBA Finals. The Warriors were strong favorites to win it all, ever since they signed Durant, and I’m not trying to take anything away from the work they put to justify the early expectations, but we knew that there’s a big chance they’ll return to the NBA Finals. The Dubs took our raise and re-raised it with a stellar season, one that instantly qualifies them as the favorites to return to the biggest stage to defend their title once again. The Cavaliers have proved doubters wrong before and are expected to continue their role of a legitimate challenger.
NBA Finals: Will there be an Episode IV?
Yes, it’s early, but are we going to see this same match-up next year as well? This was the only time in the NBA history that the same two teams met three consecutive times to decide on the title (although the Celtics and the Lakers ran at each other frequently in the 60s). Could there be a fourth? These teams are breaking barriers already, so it wouldn’t be all that surprising. But if they do, how can the Episode IV be more thrilling than this? The empire has already struck back and there’s no turning back the clock in these wars.
Let’s take a look at the position two recently dominant teams have put themselves for the future.
Age
Some dynasties or wannabes were cut short by nearing father time of their stars. One of the first modern super teams, the Pierce-Allen-Garnett Celtics, formed a bit too late to have this kind of sustained success.
The Warriors
Between the four main guys, Steph Curry and Kevin Durant are the oldest. They both will enter the next season at 29-years of age, meaning that they are in the midst of their primes and we can expect sustained level of performance for at least 4 more years. Scary thought if you are some other team’s fan. Outside the stars, the Warriors will soon look to replace Andre Iguodala and Zaza Pachulia due to age and mileage, but not yet. Only David West, an insignificant screw in this machine might decide to retire now that he hitchhiked to a ring.
The Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are more of a veteran team. LeBron James will turn 33 around Christmas, but his stamina and athleticism show no signs of decline and I’ll believe in it when I see it. JR Smith is also on the wrong side of the 30, but could last couple of more seasons in his 3-and-D role. Irving and Love are in their primes for the next few seasons at least. The Cavaliers supporting cast is what’s making them an elder council. Richard Jefferson, Dahntay and James Jones were all born in 1980 and Korver, Frye and Deron Williams aren’t far behind. Most of these players aren’t big time contributors and are held onto due to close ties with LeBron James. They are also willing to play at a big discount to be around him, but the Cavaliers will probably have no problems finding a similar veteran group of players for the King’s escort.
Contracts
Juggling with this many stars proved difficult before. Remember when the Thunder had Harden, Westbrook, Durant and Ibaka on their roster and the extension time came? It didn’t turn out too well for them, so will the free agency create issues for the Dubs or the Cavs?
The Warriors
Theoretically, the Warriors could have a completely different look next year. Thompson, Green and youngsters Looney and McCaw are the only three players with guaranteed contracts next season. Durant has the player’s option he’ll likely use, while Curry, Iguodala, Livingston, and all three centers are free agents.
There’s little doubt in whether Curry (and Iguodala) will re-sign with the Warriors, but the payroll will increase dramatically. Largely due to early career ankle struggles, Curry signed a bargain deal that has him at about $12 millions for this season. He’ll command around $26.5-30 millions per season on this new contract, and Iguodala will probably see slight increase on his $11 millions. The Warriors will likely pay taxes for the foreseeable future, but considering that a single NBA Finals game earns the Warriors about $20 millions, they’ll be happy to pay it as long as they are at the top. Still, with the new contracts for the main guys, there’ll be little wiggle room to improve through free agency. Of course, quite a few veterans will be happy to jump aboard for the minimum.
The Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are a repeated offender and pay heavy penalties for rolling a $127.3 millions total salary, waaay above the cap. That’s always going to happen with James on board, so as long as they are looking to have the best player in the world and try to surround him with decent enough supporting cast, the Cavs know it will cost them.
The problem is, are they willing to pay such a hefty penalty for a roster that can only lead them to conference titles? All five starters, Iman Shumpert, Frye and Jefferson are signed through 2018-19 season, so nothing is coming off the books either. Bogut and Deron Williams might not sign for lunch money again, but the Cavs are built to stay put for the foreseeable future (unless James bolts to reign new kingdom after the next season). If they lost the belief in current roster, they might blow things up, but they’ll likely have another go with the same axis.
Challengers
Sometimes even the great teams run into better ones and fail to reach their full potential. Just ask this year’s Cavs. Can anyone dethrone triple NBA champions of either conference will mostly depend on what those other teams can do to improve, as both the Warriors and the Cavaliers will seemingly be at the same strength in 2018.
The Warriors
It’s hard to see anyone challenge the Dubs next year, same as this year. Probably the closest pair are the Texas giants, the San Antonio Spurs and the Houston Rockets. The first ones are already campaigning for splashy moves over the summer (by openly targeting Chris Paul), while the second one never had the chance to swing at the new/old champions. The others seem way behind.
The Cavaliers
The Cavaliers dominated the postseason, but haven’t been able to so during the regular 82. Of course, there’s as much incentive to play the regular season after getting to the NBA Finals year in and year out, but other Eastern Conference teams will smell blood more easily if they continue to cruise through the season. Most importantly, bad habits come in, like the one that cost the Cavaliers their title this year – they stopped playing defense.
Boston is on the verge of creating a better team next year, especially if they cash in on the first pick by offloading him for a star in his prime. Such a move will dramatically complicate any conversation on which team had the best chances to reach the NBA Finals. Other than Boston, it’s hard to see who could close the gap. Some teams will improve, but are so far behind that it’s hard to believe they could knock off the Cavs in 7.
The verdict
As much as the continued story would be welcomed by the media, I’d like to see a bit of variety. But this is not the place for my wishes.
Chances are that the Warriors will be back for the fourth consecutive NBA Finals, further justifying their status as all time great team. The Cavaliers also have good chance, but I’m giving them 50-50 at best, despite the underwhelming candidates in the conference. They are on a decline, slight but obvious and it’ll only get tougher from here.
LeBron James is superhuman and has never lacked motivation, but there are valid questions about everyone else, from Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving to Tristan Thompson, J.R. Smith and the lack of new blood. It ends with Tyronn Lue, who has proven to be a below average head coach despite the title a year ago. It’s going to be close, and we might even get to see the Cavs vs. Warriors in the NBA Finals – Episode IV. It’s going to be a fun ride to reach there either way.
