NBA Game Previews for March 17, 2017 (2 games)
Boston Celtics (43-25) at Brooklyn Nets (13-54), 7:30 p.m. EST
Line: Celtics -9. Total 219.5.
If the Nets could play the Knicks every game, they might make the playoffs.
Brooklyn just finished embarrassing The Knickerbockers for the second time in five days with a 121-110 win at Madison Square Garden Thursday night, by outscoring New York 67-49 in the second half.
But now they face the #2 team in the Eastern Conference, the Celtics, albeit it, without Boston’s budding superstar Isaiah Thomas, who is not travelling with the team for this two-game road trip.
The Celtics are 1-3 this season without Thomas, who missed four games back in early December. Boston beat Orlando by 30 without him, but then lost three straight to Toronto, Oklahoma City and San Antonio. Boston has not fared well this season in those “check-mark” games where they have rest and their opponent does not.
As far as the total goes, the Celtics may be on the verge of having a run of overs in what I call a “Quasi-chart play”. A “chart play” for me is simple. Whenever a streak of four or more overs, unders, covers or not-covers end, the streak immediately reverses itself and goes the other way.
For instance, if a team has covered the spread 8 games in a row and then does not cover their next one (“Not Cover”), then we immediately fade (pick against) that team their next game. The higher the number of the streak, the stronger the “chart play” as soon as the streak ends.
Now taking the Celtics Over tonight is a “Quasi-chart play” for me because they have gone under the total 10 of 11 games prior to going over the total their last game against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday. And the one over during that 11-game stretch went over by just half a point.
If you are worried about Boston not going over the total without Thomas, do not be, because the Celtics did go over the total 2 of the 4 games he was out in early December.
Minnesota Timberwolves (28-39) at Miami Heat (33-35), 8 p.m. EST
Line: Heat -4.5. Total 206.5.
If someone were to ask you which NBA team has the best record in the entire league since January 17th, what would your answer be?
Golden State? Wrong.
San Antonio? Wrong.
Cleveland? Not even close.
How about the Miami Heat? Ding-ding-ding-ding-ding-ding. Tell him what he has won Johnny Olson.
All kidding aside, the Heat have been a scalding hot 22-5 over their last 27 games and have vaulted themselves right into the playoff race and in fact are tied with the Detroit Pistons for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference record-wise, at least, although the Pistons officially hold that #8 spot for now thanks to the tiebreaker system.
The Heat won 13 straight starting on January 17, covering the spread in all 13 games, too. Victim #11 from that streak is tonight’s opponent, the T’Wolves.
Minnesota has a decent streak of their own in the works, as they have covered the spread 9 of their last 11, including 8 in a row from February 15 through March 10.
What has caught my eye more though is the “chart-play” in progress for the Timberwolves.
Minnesota had gone under the total 6 straight games before going over against the Wizards on March 13. And as the “chart-play” dictates, now you start taking the T’Wolves over because that under streak will reverse itself. So far, so good, as their next game did go over at Boston so the default play for this game is to take this game vs. the Heat over the total.
And the Heat flew over their total last time out vs. the New Orleans Pelicans thanks to the return of Goran Dragic, who had missed a game and a half due to an eye injury suffered against the Raptors. His right eye was swollen shut and looked so bad that his teammate Hassan Whiteside nicknamed him “Drago” from the Rocky IV movie, referring to Ivan Drago, the Russian boxer that fought Rocky in that movie.
Dragic score 33 points to lead the Heat to their 120-112 victory on Wednesday.
