At the beginning of the season, the odds were so heavily stacked that it was supposed to be either LeBron James or Kevin Durant winning the Most Valuable Player award. As it turns out, only one is in the running and he’s trailing significantly as we head down the home stretch. So who’s the horse that leading the race? It’s Steph Curry and unless he completely runs out of steam down the home stretch, he should be taking home the award.
1. Stephen Curry
This is likely the majority choice for the award, based on what various basketball writers are saying at outlets such as ESPN.com. Curry is pursuing a 50-40-90 season (those three numbers referring to overall shooting percentage, three-point percentage, and free throw percentage), which is incredible. He is leading the league in steals on a per-game basis. He is also the leader in made three-point shots and a stat that analytics people refer to as “real plus-minus,” – a more developed way of calculating plus-minus differentials during a season. The collective statistical measurements give Curry a very favorable position.
Beyond that, there’s the simple added fact that Golden State is almost certainly going to be the top seed in the Western Conference. Curry makes more of a difference on an elite team than any other player. LeBron James is not going to get Cleveland to 60 wins this season whereas Golden State will easily get there.
2. James Harden
What first comes to mind is that Dwight Howard has missed 33 of Houston’s 65 games to this point. How is it the have the fifth-best record in the NBA? It all starts with Harden. Houston has been carried by The Beard, who has played more minutes than any other MVP candidate. He has improved his defense to the point that it is no longer a liability. He helps out on the boards and is generally a much better “effort player” than he used to be.
The skills were never in question, and neither was the scoring where he averaged 26.8 points per game this season (second-best in the NBA). In terms of pure numbers, he has the edge on Curry. He also contributes 7.1 assists, 5.8 rebounds, 2.0 steals and 0.8 blocks. Those numbers are nothing short of ridiculous. The challenge is that Curry’s team is better and that’s going to work against Harden here.
3. Russell Westbrook
The Oklahoma City point guard is getting some attention for first place in this race but he’s mostly third behind Curry and Harden. Westbrook is producing 45.7 points per game if you include assists and not just points directly scored. Across the board, 27.4, 8.4 assists, 7.2 rebounds and 2.1 steals is hard to argue with.
The challenge is that Westbrook has missed 15 games, which is less than the 24 games Bill Walton missed as the NBA’s MVP in 1978. As long as Westbrook doesn’t miss anything more than two to three more games, he should be eligible for this award and in the running.
4. LeBron James
It is true that Cleveland’s place in the standings is not going to rise to what Houston or Golden State have done, and it’s also true that LeBron has not dealt with a superstar injury the way Westbrook has with Kevin Durant out so much. Yet, the Cavs are surging. They’re an NBA best 23-5 since January 5. They’re in line to get the second seed in the East and the team’s slow start to the season has been mostly forgotten. That being the case, James is going to be in the conversation.
5. Anthony Davis
The New Orleans big man is seen as an underrated candidate because he has a very high PER rating (measuring impact on various levels) and a high level of win shares. He is among the league leaders in rebounds and blocked shots. That at least keeps him on the radar but it appears he’s not going to get many first-place or second-place votes because the Pelicans are a borderline playoff team. Third might be his ceiling, and fourth or fifth are more likely.
