The combination of age, injuries and team scenarios all have the potential to impact the fantasy value of a frontcourt player – especially when you consider the history of big men hitting the wall at certain points in their careers. There’s a number of these landmines on the fantasy landscape and you’ll be wise to avoid these four big men next season.
Anderson Varejao, Cleveland Cavaliers
Varejao is actually the longest-tenured member of the Cavaliers but he could be close to becoming a forgotten man as it has been nearly seven months since he suffered a torn Achilles tendon and there is no guarantee he will ever regain his prior form. Varejao will turn 33 years old in September and despite Cleveland showing its faith in his ability by handing him a three-year, $30-million extension he is already limited as a player and could have a tough time carving out a role in a crowded frontcourt rotation. The Cavaliers brought back Kevin Love as well as Timofey Mozgov and they intend to sign Tristan Thompson to a long-term deal so it’s hard to envision a scenario where Varejao has a major fantasy impact.
Nikola Pekovic, Minnesota Timberwolves
Pekovic had sneaky good fantasy value last season when he averaged 12.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game in 31 appearances but there are a couple of factors beyond his ability that will have a negative impact on his production. First of all, the selection of center Karl Anthony-Towns gives Minnesota the type of dominant power forward/center that will demand big minutes and provide immediate production next season.
Second, head coach Flip Saunders has already committed to Kevin Garnett as his starting power forward with Pekovic slotted to come off the bench behind him. Pekovic was a decent depth option on fantasy rosters last season but with Towns, Garnett and Gorgui Dieng on the Timberwolves roster, his value will decline from a fantasy perspective for this year. He’ll be 30 by the end of the 2015-16 season and considering he was only a modest option for points and rebounds before, it’s hard to invest knowing that he’s older and facing diminished minutes.
Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
Duncan was instrumental in making sure that LaMarcus Aldridge, David West and Danny Green all signed with the Spurs in the offseason but the fact that San Antonio loaded up should serve as a red flag for fantasy GM’s when it comes to deciding whether to add the veteran big man next season.
Duncan averaged 13.9 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.0 blocks per game in 77 appearances for the Spurs last season but he averaged just 28.9 minutes per game. That number – as well as – his number of games played could both go down with more help next year. Duncan is 39 years old and the goal for the Spurs will be to save him for the postseason. He is someone you’ll want to avoid unless it’s later in your draft.
David West, San Antonio Spurs
West signed a one-year, $1.4 million deal with the Spurs for the opportunity to win a title at any cost…and that cost actually included West taking an $11 million pay cut just to make it happen. While San Antonio appears to be the favorite on paper out of the Western Conference right now, there is no doubt West’s fantasy value will dip as a result of the move. The veteran forward averaged 11.7 points, 6.8 rebounds and 3.4 assists last season but remember that his minutes have declined in three straight seasons.
It will be impossible to trust him from a fantasy perspective as his minutes are going to cut down even more. There’s Duncan and Aldridge already in the mix, Boris Diaw gets minutes up front (24.5 last season) and rookie center Cady Lalanne has looked good in Summer League too, so he could see playing time too. On a loaded Spurs roster, West’s fantasy value has dwindled.
