Making good decisions is in the first betting inscription ever made, so you may think that I’m going to chew on the old topic here, but this is not one of those ‘bet responsibly’ articles. I’m counting on you already understanding the difference between casual gambling and investing in the sports betting industry. It’s your money to do whatever you want to do with it, but in case you are looking to make more money with it, you might be interested in a hidden caveat that most people don’t recognize as a potential way to lose money – the value bets.
Avoiding bad bets in the NBA
Bad bets happen. Don’t trust anyone who tells you otherwise, in a bar, on a website or elsewhere. With all the experience and attention, some slip through the cracks even with the best punters out there. We must accept the fact that we made one, mark the situation down and learn from it to prevent it in the future, or at least minimize the occurrence.
But what is a bad bet, if I may ask you? Most of the recreational punters answer this question with a wrong answer. No, it is not a bet that you have lost a significant stake on, and it’s not one which outcome was far from your projection. Bad bets can earn you money. Not too often, but with his variability of results and event, you may find yourself fortunate here and there and profit on a bad bet. It doesn’t make it less bad, just like a losing outcome doesn’t turn a good wager into a bad one. This is what many casual players can’t comprehend. Any winning wager should be a good one and vice versa. This thinking leads to a definite red numbers over the longer period, unless everything you touch turns to gold. If you are not already aware, mark it down.
Bad bet is a one that holds a negative value under a certain set of circumstances.
You might find this definition too broad, so I’ll explain it through some examples. You open up your bookie’s offer and spot a +4 Cleveland Cavaliers in Detroit and you think this is such a nice price and punt it. After placing the wager, you check the Twitter and find out that LeBron James won’t be playing. Gulp. Bad bet.
You haven’t checked all the circumstances and ended up with a bet you probably wouldn’t make if you had known all the facts. Cavs could win the game, or cover, but it’s still a bad bet. Or, your team led by 20 after three quarters but you lose a moneyline bet on a historical comeback by another team. In frustration, you immediately punt against the team that lucked out (or on your team), but the price ends up 15 points better by closing of the market. Bad bet. The market move indicates that the value was clearly on the other side and you allowed your emotion to get better than you and chose the wrong team. There are numerous ways how you can make bad bets, ranging from terrible one to null-value bets, and they all have that negative value in common.
So it’s a common mantra in betting advice to avoid, or limit bad bets. Losing money is no fun, no matter if you are doing this for a living or just exploring the possibility of cashing in on some basketball knowledge. You’ve heard it before – keep making bad bets and you’ll end up in the red.
Close to that area lies the hidden caveat. People don’t like losing money that much that they tend to overprotect themselves from what they believe are bad bets. And with most of the people have that false presumption that a bad bet is the one you think you’re going to lose your money on, they often pass on the value bets due to insecurity in the outcome.
Value over belief
It’s nice to have confidence, even faith in your wagers, but that’s not a necessary thing to have in this business. Decision making process should be freed from all the subjectiveness. And by subjectiveness, I mean not allowing any personal preference toward a team or total points side to take over. It’s ok if to move away a couple of points if you really don’t like how your numbers turned out, but if you can manage without, even better.
The ultimate decider on which side will you take should always be the value. No matter what kind of method you use to determine what are the fair numbers on a game, placing a wager should always try to beat the book on the side they are giving the larger margin to win (if sufficient, of course).
The bookies have their own calculations that account the money flow and the expectance of money flow. They are aware of the value given on a side, but they are driven by the balance, not by the fair number. Otherwise, we’d have incredibly small chance to beat them in their own game. This way, you can and will be profitable, just make sure you don’t budge when the wager says the bet should be on Philadelphia or Orlando, or under on the Warriors game.
Your intuition is your enemy here. Let’s put it this way – you do all the math, adjust the number per team news, fatigue, schedule and more and you do it with true precision and attention to each aspect of a matchup. Then, when you look at the market, it turns out that you have enough of a value to play on a lesser team. In fear of losing the money, you rather pass. Even if the lesser team covers, it’s no harm done. Right? Wrong. Very, very wrong.
Passing up on value bets is the cardinal sin, the same way as taking bad bets. While it’s not lowering your money balance directly, not playing the value bets is a missed opportunity to gain profit. In the long term, passing up on such opportunity can mean only one thing, and I’m sure I don’t have to paint this picture much clearer to you. You always knew that, but it’s in a human nature to believe that it’s a smaller mistake not to do anything than to try and make a mistake. It’s not. Not in this business. And don’t go out and fire away across the bookie’s offer now. Remember that I’m talking about the value bets only, those that carry enough of the price difference that you can beat bookie’s vig.
Don’t pass on these value bets, and avoid taking bad bets as much as it’s possible and you’ll see an increase on your accounts. How big that increase will be depends on more things, mostly on your skill to set the fair number properly. The one thing you are certainly eliminating is luck, and with no bad luck in equation, you’re going to be much more relaxed and happy. Good luck with your betting again – make sure you catch on more betting advice, strategies and analysis, right here at GetMorSports!!!
