Injuries are a part of the NBA and with generally even distribution among teams, it’s not something that anyone will be sorry for. It’s inconvenient but also unavoidable. Some players are more easily replaced than others. Team depth, player’s usage and coaching creativity impact this. Bookies keep track of how certain absences impact the betting market, and bettors constantly adjust their numbers to account for ever-changing team news.
A quick run-through over the NBA rosters shows a relatively low number of significant injuries at the moment. Still, I decided to go through most of them to review players statuses and how to bet on teams missing them.
Old news, updated
Players from this group don’t have any effect on the market today, as they are not available for too long. So I’ll just do a quick overview of their progress.
Paul Millsap (Denver) – He’s working on conditioning and doing some on-court stuff. You can expect him back in the week following the All-Star break.
Jabari Parker (Milwaukee) – Coming after second ACL tear, Parker is much a forgotten man, but will return soon, possibly as soon as on Friday against the Knicks.
Markelle Fultz (Philadelphia) – The Sixers are redshirting rookies as a development system and there’s still no timetable for Fultz’s return.
Kawhi Leonard (San Antonio) – No updates. The Spurs are operating with gloves and nothing is leaking out to the media. He’s unlikely to play prior to All-Star Week.
Seth Curry (Dallas) – Given the Mavericks struggles to score the ball, Curry’s return can’t come soon enough, but there’s a good chance that he won’t be too impactful even after healing. Carlisle hinted that he won’t be back for at least a week.
Short term, but not to be ignored
There are a couple of day-to-day injuries that still have a ripple effect on the market. These are generally most dangerous ones for the punters as they can shift lines quickly on status change and require constant monitoring.
Devin Booker (Phoenix) – Suns scoring guard got injured against the Rockets, but the extent of his injury isn’t publicly known. He’s their primary option on offense and they don’t have anybody to step up and replace his production. Bettors should go against the Suns on confirmation of his absence, as the market undervalues his impact. The Suns have been playing more unders lately, even with him, so avoid going after the points either way.
Willie Cauley-Stein (Sacramento) – The Kings players have been wildly inconsistent this season, but WCS has been one of the most reliable ones. Even with his reserve status, bettors should down Sacto by 1.0-1.5 spread points over the next two games he’ll miss with a deep bone bruise.
John Wall (Washington) – It’s possible that Wall only had a maintenance day in Atlanta due to poor knees condition and the underwhelming opponent, but it’s best to be prepared. With the NBA All-Star break coming up, the Wizards might think it’s a good timing to give him more rest to improve his condition. The Wizards have been throwing their backers’ money through the window for the past few weeks, so the market already has them on fading list, and the news on Wall’s absence will likely have a counter effect on the value. Be prepared to think about backing them if the public overreacts to his absence. His dual play of offense and defense negates most of the impact on over/unders, but the lines will likely be dropped for a few points.
D’Angelo Russell (Brooklyn) – Russell returned from a lengthy recovery, but is on what the Nets call ‘return management’ and he’ll miss back-to-back games and play fewer minutes. As feared, his return negatively impacted the Nets, who have been very kind to the bettors in his absence. With raised numbers and his poor play, they are currently better without having him available.
Kris Dunn (Chicago) – With Portis and Mirotic returns claiming most of the credit for turning the Bulls season around, Kris Dunn’s irreplaceable role has been unfairly far from the spotlight. The Bulls have no option during his recovery from the blow to the head, and it’s showing on their performance. Dunn remains in the concussion protocol and whenever he’s confirmed as out, feel free to ignore recent positive ATS trends of the Bulls and bet against this team.
Still slowing their teams down
Despite their NBA teams already having some time to find ways to adjust to their absences, some players are still important when looking at the numbers.
Reggie Jackson (Detroit) – The Pistons are on an eight-game losing streak and while not all can be attributed to Jackson’s injury, they simply don’t have anyone to run this offense and create shots for others. He’ll remain without basketball activities in 2-3 weeks, so there’s hopelessness striking too. I’m still adjusting for his absence, giving half-a-point of an advantage to Detroit’s opponents and lowering the total point lines by a 1.5 points. Not much, but considering how long he has been away from the team, it’s still too large.
Nikola Vucevic (Orlando) – The Magic woke up in the last few games, and have found some alternatives to Vooch’s game, so it’s not as drastic as with Jackson and the Pistons. However, Magic game shifted away from the post and they have become increasingly reliant on the outside shot. Birch and Biyombo added some defensive toughness, but lack of offense is what really resulted in more under games. Adjust your lines by -2.0 points for Magic games without Vucevic.
Catastrophic injuries
DeMarcus Cousins (New Orleans) – I’ve written about Cousins’ injury and how it’ll resonate on the Pelicans near and far future games. So, in a couple of words – pick your chances but lean to fade the Pelicans in next weeks. Unders are also a strong option in the long term.
Andre Roberson (Oklahoma City) – the Defensive wing that does all the dirty work instead of the Thunder stars ruptured his patella tendon and will miss the remainder of the NBA season. Roberson missed some games this year so the statisticians already have a rough image of how his absence will impact the OKC game, but I don’t believe that the previous absence tells the right story. Roberson is extremely limited offensively and excellent on the defense, and yet the Thunder wouldn’t score or give up much more points sans him. I’m going to go after their overs strongly, no matter who replaces Roberson in the starting lineup. His injury doesn’t have much impact on the spreads right now, but they’ll remember him come playoff time.
