Two days rest after a chippy Game 3 may not be enough to settle flared tempers, so the Washington Wizards and the Boston Celtics are going into the Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semis anticipating an ultimate fight. The prize for the host is evening the series and completely shifting the momentum, while the visiting team could take full control over the series should they avoid another Waterloo.
Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards Game 4
LINE: Washington Wizards -4.5 (-104); moneyline -180
Total: 216 points (-106o, -106u)
Boston bad habit of starting slowly costs them a chance to win
The Celtics still have a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven series, but the after 89-116 drubbing, the perspective has changed. For one game, at least, the Washington Wizards were able to match and even exceed the Celtics’ aggressiveness. It was not the regular up 2-0 issue with overconfidence. The Celtics were actually outplayed for some portions of he previous games as well, but managed to climb up and take the wins. This time, after falling behind by 20 in the first quarter, the task was too tall.
The Celtics had been overcoming slow starts, so in hopes of avoiding another, coach Stevens moved Gerald Green back into the starting lineup for Game 3, replacing ineffective Amir Johnson. It backfired big time, so the Celtics just tried to focus on recognizing what battles are they winning and experimenting on what to do with the defensive matchups for the remainder of the game.
Nothing really worked, so the best they could do is focus on just doing their tasks better. With more healthy Morris, the Celtics have finally fell into the trouble that was looming from the very start of the series – whom should Thomas guard? They started him on Wall, but the Wizards promptly put him into hard Gortat screens, draining his energy.
Stevens responded by placing him on Beal, but that didn’t work either as he still had to fight over back screen and trailed much taller Wizards guard. Finally, they tried what was bound to happen in the series – Thomas tried to defend 6-foot-8 Otto Porter. Porter is not known for his scoring, but only because of his role with the Wizards, and he had a field day. Also, the Celtics couldn’t evaluate any tactics much, as the game was scissored by the frequent fouling and jawing, so it’s didn’t have the usual flow.
Except industrious Horford, no other Boston player had played well in the Game 3, and Smart was brutally bad. Frustrated by the big deficit, he lost his composure and his head cost him and the Celtics 8 lost balls – one fewer than the entire Washington team. The other backup guard, Rozier, got ejected. Before things got out of hand, Jae Crowder got off to a very good start, scoring 8 of the Celtics’ first 12 points and playing some solid defense against the much bigger Markieff Morris.
Thomas scored only 13 points, never getting into any offensive rhythm and losing the temporary tooth along the way. No other player scored in double digits for the Celtics, who shot 35 percent from the field. Perhaps even more dooming, the only player who had more than Tyler Zeller’s 4 rebounds, was Crowder with 7. The Celtics lost the rebounding battle 38-50.
Place: Verizon Center, Washington, D.C.
Date/Time: Sunday May 7th, 2017. 6:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: TNT
The Washington Wizards work hard to use Celtics’ flaws, hide their own
Desperate after losing two games in Boston that they could have won, the Wizards made sure the Celtics couldn’t rally, mustering a first quarter 22-0 run and managed to protect the hard earned lead. Also, unlike other games where the Wizards jumped out to big leads just by outscoring Boston, they really earned the big lead in this one playing good defense from the jump. The way they did it might not draw many new fans, as it kind of resembled the 90s Pistons.
The game was full of altercations, lack of respect and sportsmanship, but it work for the Washington Wizards so they embraced it. In fact, this was the first time since January 27th that Washington held an opponent under 90 points.
They finally managed to slow down minuscule Celtics guard Isaiah Thomas, operating much more alerting on the left side pick and rolls, showing the trap early and high and collapsing once Thomas or the roll guy would drive into the small gap. But, most of the job was done by making Thomas work on the defensive end, aggressively using the offensive weapon that attacked whomever Thomas defended.
Wall was attacking the rim and managed to get to the foul line 10 times. He finished with 24 points and 8 assists. Porter had his best game of the postseason with 19 points and 8 boards, while Gortat dominated the paint with 13 points and 16 rebounds. The bench, a complete no-show in the first two games, got it going at home, mostly due to 19 points and 10 rebounds of Bojan Bogdanovic.
The Washington Wizards shot 46.7 percent from the field and attempted 15 more FG attempts thanks to taking good care of the ball and winning the battle on the glass. The starters could buy a three, and Washington probably shouldn’t expect that Bogdanovic hits 4 triples again, so this might be a slight concern going forward.
Young forward Oubre will likely be suspended for ramming Olynyk, but this won’t have big impact on the game, contrary to popular belief. While the Wizards aren’t very deep with usable players off the bench, Oubre is generally their worst player and the Wiz got Mahinmi back, so they could rest Morris with Jason Smith.
Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards Game 4 Trends & Prediction
The blowout loss meant the end of the 6 game win streak, both SU and ATS, so the Celtics fell to 46-43-2 against the spread this season. They are usually a profitable team when playing as the visiting team. They went 26-17-2 so far on the road. The Celtics lost most of the interest in the Game 3 after the first quarter, leading to an under points game, which also snapped a short 3-game over streak for them. Boston are 44-43-4 against the over/under, but only 18-25 away from home.
It’s not surprising that the Wizard figured things out at the Verizon Center, as they have been playing significantly better basketball at home this season. They’ve won and covered in each of the three D.C. meetings with the Celts, and done it with a 20 point cushion on average. They are 26-19 against the spread at home, and only 46-44-1 overall. The Wizards are 56-34-1 against the projected total point line this season, going 26-19 in Washington.
The Washington Wizards are clear favorites to win this game as well, laying 4.5 points to the opposition, a bit lower than the previous, must-win game. The public is on the Wizards en large, but that’s not where the value is. Regardless of whether Oubre plays or not, but counting that the dentists finally fix Thomas’ teeth so he can play a normal game, I have the Washington Wizards as a 2.5 jolly, and will gladly take the extra points. The game is likely to be tight and could come down to the final shot. The total points line finally bounced back close to the level from the Game 1, hovering around 216 at the moment, so I’m going double on this game, taking the overs as well.
My Pick: Boston Celtics +4.5 (-110)
Total: Over 216 points (-110)
