The Houston Rockets lead the Oklahoma City Thunder with 2-1 after each side protected their home court so far. The last two games were close, so the Game 4 could mean the breaking point for the series. Prime time on Sunday with nation watching is the perfect scene for the battle.
Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder Game 4
LINE: Oklahoma City -1.5 (+100); moneyline -109
Total: 224 (-102o, +100u)
Harden misses the game-winning shot in attempt to steal Game 3
When a team launches as many triples as the Houston Rockets do, they won’t win games shooting 28.6% from deep. But all those misses wouldn’t matter if the last one had been on target, as the Rockets still gave themselves a chance with a strong fourth quarter. Had the Beard’s buzzer-beater three gone in, Houston would be looking at a pretty 3-0 lead.
Harden has had a great game with 44 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists, although he did miss 8 three point tries and had 7 turnovers. The support was also present, but not of the same level as previously. Houston bigs have been completely missing from the series. Capela had only 2 rebounds in 23 minutes and he and Nene combined to shoot the same 3-of-7 from the field and from the stripe. Gordon and Anderson, while providing some points, were just 3-of-12 from the deep, but the Rockets main x-factor in this series, Patrick Beverley, was the worst. He missed all of his field goals and committed 3 turnovers while fouling out in 25 minutes. Houston doesn’t always need his offensive output of the first two games, but can’t have him not playing good defense either.
Defensively, Houston are having more troubles as the series is advancing. They can’t get enough Thunder turnovers to spur their transition and look confused to pick up guys when the Thunder take off. They are not connected to the shooters, trying to disturb the shot with late, sometimes lazy, hand up from far away. They’ve allowed the Thunder to shoot 55.4 percent from the field and with their shooting night of 45.8 percent, it was too much to overcome. Their offense is more stagnant than in the regular season, as if they are feeling the burden of being favored to advance. In Game 3, Houston had only 10 assists, compared to Thunder’s 24.
Place: Chesapeake Energy Arena, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Date/Time: Sunday April 23rd, 2017. 3:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: ABC
Team play gets the important win for the Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder finally played excellent basketball, from the top of the roster to the bottom. Russell Westbrook, of course, led with 32 points, 11 assists, and 13 rebounds. The only blemish on his night was the three missed free throws in the final minute that gave Houston a shot at winning. But the true progress was playing with his teammates, a system that has once again proved to be successful. Westbrook took only one 3-point shot the entire game and 24 shots overall, understanding the critique after he overplayed himself in Game 2 of the series.
His supporting cast received a lot of unfair criticism for underperforming, but silenced the doubters with 20 points from Taj Gibson, and double figures from Andre Roberson, Victor Oladipo, and Enes Kanter. The Thunder led almost the entire game, just like in the previous game, but survived a scare when Harden’s buzzer shot to win the game was short.
In desperate need of a win, the Thunder came out ready to go. They opened up the game on 11-2 run and scored 65 points by halftime with team play and unexpectedly good outside shooting. One of the worst 3-pt shooting teams in the league was 9-of-19 from the deep, picking their chances instead of settling for them. They hit 55.4 percent of their attempts, almost equal to their 60.9 percent free throw shooting that almost cost them the game. Defensively, they didn’t do as good of a job as the last time and can be thankful for the poor Houston shooting.
They’ve especially struggled by the end of the third and throughout the fourth quarter, as the Rockets showed that they are much better team in the clutch. They still managed to be very disciplined in transition, completely taking the Rockets easy points away for the second game in a row. Behind rebound run-outs and purposeful rim-runs, Oklahoma City dominated the Rockets 19-4 in fast-break scoring.
Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder Game 4 Trends & Prediction
Despite the loss, the Houston Rockets actually managed to cover the spread. Houston are 43-42 ATS and have previously covered only once in 11 games. Their last three covers are against the OKC. Houston are money on the road, sporting a 25-17 ATS record when traveling this season. The last two games were overs, but not by much. Still, it give the Rockets a 43-41-1 record against the projected total line. On the other side, this was the first time in last 10 road games against winning teams that the game resulted in over points.
The Thunder failed to beat the small handicap, and they should have. At home, OKC is 26-15-1 ATS, so that where they win money for their backers. The Thunder are 39-45-1 on the total point market, but 22-20 this season in Oklahoma City, where they shoot with more confidence. They shoot above 47 percent at home, while their field goal percentage on the road is a mere 43 percent.
As previously explained, fourth games don’t carry as big of a home court advantage, so the books did well to cut down the spread, making OKC just a 1.5-point favorite. The series is showing more and more positives for the Thunder, but the Rockets are still more complete and more capable team. Their issues start with the coach D’Antoni’s inability to adjust, making them a true live-by-the-three or die-by-the-three team. The Thunder’s problem is that Houston had missed too many deep shots they already make and that’s what has kept the result close. There’s no value in backing them with these odds, but they are in good position to take this game. Over is approachable at 224 as the Thunder figured out to play together and the Houston Rockets will likely shoot better from the perimeter. Take the over points.
My Pick: Pass
Total: Over 224 points (-102)
