It is a familiar start of the NBA playoffs for the Memphis Grizzlies and the San Antonio Spurs, as two teams met last year in the first round as well. The Spurs had no trouble disposing their division rivals in four games, completing a second consecutive series sweep after doing the same in the conference finals in 2013. All the regular season’s games have been played since February 6th and the teams protected their homes, splitting the series. This is the 20th consecutive NBA playoffs appearance for the Spurs, but the first time without the legendary forward Tim Duncan.
NBA Playoffs: Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs
LINE: San Antonio -8.5 (-105); moneyline -417
Total: 192.5 points (+110 over, -105 under)
The Grizzlies are not a real contender
This year’s version of the Memphis Grizzlies (43-39) was supposed to put the last, injury-riddled season that saw Grizzlies get ousted from the NBA Playoffs before they could even win a game, to distant memory. Coach Fizdale was supposed to modernize the offense, Mike Conley got a massive new contract and the arrival of Chandler Parsons to Tennessee was seen as a bridge from the old, grit-and-grind Memphis Grizzles and the new era.
One year later, the Grizzlies find themselves in pretty much the same position as the previous one, despite checking some of those boxes. They were more healthy than the last year, which is not a hard thing to do, but still suffered injuries to the key players here and there. Fizdale moved Gasol from the high post to outside the three point line and the Grizzlies made a franchise record number of threes this season. Young players played well in limited roles and JaMychal Green improved to a solid starter.
Still, there isn’t much of a silver lining in Parsons’ year one in Memphis. He was never healthy; he started the season not right, and he never got right. The Grizzlies lost a lot of time trying to fit him into the starting spot and once that failed and he got injured again, there was no other option than to start the 40-year old Vince Carter, who did his best to shave off a couple a grays from his beard, but was still well past his prime.
Mike Conley was the primary reason the Grizzlies managed to reach the NBA playoffs, as he justified the large contract by playing out a career year. Injuries continue to plague him, as he broke a vertebrae in his lower back at the start of the season, causing him to miss 13 games, but still ended up averaging 20.6 points a game, 7 points higher than his career average and making 40.7 percent of his threes, also a career high. Gasol has been taking more deep shots than ever and it has helped him reach 19.5 points per game, but also lowered his rebounding. He is just the third-best rebounder with 6.2 rpg. The Grizzlies are a strong rebounding team top to bottom, Allen and Conley grab 9 boards from the guards positions and Green, Randolph and even Carter do fairly well in their playing time.
Despite all the positives, the Grizzlies are still too inconsistent, going into the NBA playoffs with a 9-15 record since the All Star break, winning just once in April while trying to heal.
Like the Spurs, they play at a very slow pace, but scoring just 100.5 points per game also shows that the Grizzlies have limited options on the offensive end. Defensively, they pack the paint and let opposition show the deep ball. Even if they allow penetrations, there are no easy points. The Grizzlies put the opposition to the line more frequently than just one team in the league, despite playing third lowest number of defensive possessions.
Place: AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas
Date/Time: Saturday April 15th, 2017. 8:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN
The San Antonio Spurs machine is motored by Kawhi Leonard
The San Antonio Spurs (61-21) have rightfully become the synonym for continued excellence and are the closest a modern franchise have come to a dynasty. The crown and the scepter have been passed to the new king, Kawhi Leonard, after the face of the franchise, Tim Duncan, decided that it’s time for him to retire in the off season.
It’s been a smooth transition as coach Popovich and his staff already planned this for quite some time. Leonard previously won the NBA Finals MVP award and is a two-time Defender of the Year, so it’s not like he’s been out of the spotlight. Yet, he added another dimension to his play by transforming into a premier scorer for the Spurs.
The Spurs also filled the void by acquiring David Lee and Pau Gasol, two veteran forwards, but it was Dewayne Dedmon, an unheralded signing, who got individually the most out of the season, starting 37 games at the center position. Gasol missed time due to injury, and Parker never got it going due to a myriad of his own health issues at the beginning of the season, but the Spurs doctors haven’t been very busy this season. And it was a classic Spurs season. They were 27-6 by the New Year’s Eve and went 6-2 on the annual Rodeo trip. They even pushed the mighty Warriors for the top spot by going 57-16 in late March, before turning out the steam and letting the inertia bring their train into the station.
The recent losing has the Spurs season stats a little lowered, but they are still the second best team by margin of victory (+7.3) and they rank high in several efficiency and defensive categories. The Spurs pass good shots for great, evidenced by 47 percent shooting and league-best 39.1 percent from the three point territory. They are also sixth in total number of assists, despite playing at the second slowest tempo in the NBA. They allow 98.1 points per game on 44.3 percent shooting, both second best in the NBA.
The Spurs are a veteran team, they know what it takes to win in the NBA Playoffs and how to get deep into the NBA Playoffs. But the wear and tear on most of their players also shouldn’t be ignored. They rely on a single player’s ability more than ever. Leonard is their primary option to initiate and finish the attack, but also to guard the best opposing outside player. He finished the season with 25.7 points per game, 5.8 rebounds and 1.8 steals. With his star shining bright, second Aldridge’s season in Spurs jersey has been shaded, but the sweet shooting big man has settled in his role better and posted good numbers as well with 17.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.2 blocks a night.
Gasol and Parker round up the list of double digit scorers, but the Spurs have plenty of players that can add 8-9 points in limited minutes, like Mills, Simmons, Ginobili or Lee. A position that could give them most trouble is the point guard, as Memphis’ Conley has the upper edge on Parker, but it will also be interesting to see Gasol brothers go at each other in this NBA Playoffs series.
Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs Game 1 Game Trends & Prediction
The Memphis Grizzlies ATS record doesn’t tell you much, as they went 41-41 this season. They were quite successful in the division matches, going 10-6 and covering all four times against the first round foe. In the total points market, the Grizzlies were 38-41-3, but played more overs when away (23-17). There are no significant recent trends.
The San Antonio Spurs covered only once in the last six games, but they still finished with a winning ATS record of 41-39-2. They were an underdog on just 6 games all season. Over is a bit more frequent on Spurs games – they went 43-37 over the course of the season.
The books opened this match with Spurs a 9-point favorite and the total points line at 192. This was immediately jumped on and the lines are moved to -8.5 and 192.5 at this moment. I have to admit I didn’t see it coming, as I expected the public to be on the unders and my numbers show a fair line of 189 points, so perhaps it’s just a early move that will be pushed back. If it’s not the case, the value on under may become sufficient for placing a wager, so keep an eye on it. Taking the Grizzlies side makes more sense, as the Spurs were unable to hand them losses with high points margin. However, it doesn’t reflect the true levels of these two teams. The Spurs should have been set at -10 and I’m glad that I’m given even better odds with this early movement.
My Pick: San Antonio -8.5 (-101)
Total: (Under 193.5 -106)
