Three times this group of Toronto Raptors has been presented with the opportunity to close out an NBA playoff series in six games with a road win, three times they have failed. They will have another opportunity to break the spell when they visit Milwaukee to face the Bucks on Thursday night after winning two games in a row and taking the grip on the series.
Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors
LINE: Milwaukee -1.5 (-103); moneyline -115
Total: 195.5 points (-104o, -104u)
Toronto get the match-ups they want, crush the Bucks to take 3-2 lead
The Toronto Raptors produced a top-end offensive performance in Game 5 with Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan sharing the load, rather than carrying it. The newest member of the starting lineup Norman Powell put up breakout numbers with a team leading 25 points in 34 minutes, on 8-of-11 shooting, including 4-of-4 from three.
But starting Powell has been even more important for the Toronto Raptors as it not only added another drive-and-kick player who can operate from the wing and counter the aggressive trapping plan Bucks defense has been so successful with, but also protected Ibaka and Valanciunas from match-ups where they struggle. Matching up more mobile Ibaka with Maker and sturdier Valanciunas on post scoring Monroe has worked wonders for the Raptors.
Ibaka and Powell each scored nine points in the first and the Toronto Raptors used a 17-0 run to open a big lead that allowed them to cruise to the victory. Lowry also got over the back stiffness to score 12 in the first half, while all five starters scored in double digits. The Raptors shot 57.7 percent from the field in an offensive rhapsody that saw great ball and player movement and confident shooting.
Toronto hit 12-of-27 three point takes and 24-of-26 freebies, with 9 different players connecting on at least one 3-pointer and 8 players getting to the free throw line. It was a team play at it’s best, evidenced by franchise playoff high 28 assists.
The game was out of reach by the mid third quarter, and the defensive stats don’t tell the full story. The Toronto Raptors have failed to limit the Bucks shooting percentage wise, but did do a solid job of limiting Antetokounmpo’s influence on the game and allowed just 2 offensive rebounds for the game. They were very active playing the passing lanes and strong in the paint. It was far from the offensive performance of course, so they’ll need to step up more in the hostile environment.
Place: BMO Harris Bradley Center, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Date/Time: Thursday April 27th, 2017. 7:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: FSN
Can the Bucks fix the defense?
The Milwaukee Bucks are on the verge of losing an eighth consecutive playoff series dating back to 2001, so the fans have the reason to be anxious, but the players seem to remain confident in their abilities. In 2015 the Bucks rallied from a 3-0 deficit against the Chicago Bulls with two straight wins. But with a sellout Bucks-friendly crowd ready to roar, the Bulls put a 120-66 pounding on Milwaukee. The 54-point loss remains the worst in franchise history, regular season or playoffs.
There are a lot of expectations from coach Kidd this time, as he’s on the move next to try to respond to the small lineup the Raptors countered with. He’s counting on the length of his forwards, but the defense simply can’t get a pass after a playoff opponent shoots 57.7 percent from the field.
The Bucks tried to utilize their advantages and there’s not much they could have done better on the offense. Antetokounmpo shot 12-of-19 for 30 points to go with the 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks and 3 steals, for a true superstar performance. Snell continued to hit threes and blanket DeRozan and even Brogdon came to life with 5 threes of his own in the best scoring game of his young NBA career.
The others could and should improve slightly, but did OK in the Game 5. One thing did hurt their chances. Milwaukee shot 50 percent as a team, including a great 10-of-22 line from the 3-pt territory, but were terrible on the free throws – they hit just 15-of-26 unguarded shots.
It’s the defense that need to improve. Not only the Raptors looked spry and connected on many open shots, but the Bucks couldn’t stop the penetration either. Not playing like a young team that would suppose to have fresher legs, the Bucks were slow to react to the ball movement and were late in defensive rotations, forcing them to commit too much fouls.
Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks Game 6 Trends & Prediction
The Toronto Raptors have won straight up, and convincingly covered the spread, to improve to a 47-39-1 ATS record this season. As the series moves back to Wisconsin again, the Raptors have covered in the last two games and have a very nice away ATS record of 25-18. The total points were topped in the last game, so the Raptors are now 46-41 against the O/U, but the most of the overs have come at home. On road, the Raptors score 4 less points this season and have a 18-25 over/under record.
This trip to Canada was not a success for the Bucks backers, and after the initial three covers, the Bucks lost their money for the last two go’s. They have fallen to 39-48 against the spread and 19-25 on the road. At home, they do slightly better, going 20-23 this season. Overall, the Bucks are 43-42 against the over/under, and 23-19 at home, but the both previous postseason games in Milwaukee failed to reach the projected total points line.
The Bucks opened up as a small jolly, valued similarly as in the Game 3. You can have the home team against a -1.5 spread or for a moneyline price of -115 or lower. Keep in mind that it’s the Game 6. The teams know each other tendencies very well and have already used most of the moves that make sense.
Don’t expect the Bucks to pull a rabbit out of hat – they’ll likely make no changes whatsoever – as this is a team that is being built for the future. They want to depend on their main guys and grow the youngsters. Game 6 doesn’t come with big home court advantage in general and the Raptors have already won there.
However, it’s not easy to put away a team on the road, as evidenced by the previous Raptors tries in recent years, and Lowry’s back issues are a reason for a slight concern. I give 52.5% of the chance to Bucks to win the game, so there isn’t enough space to go for the either side. The total points line bounced back after all offense Game 5, and it’s set at 195.5. It gives me just enough value to take the over points.
My Pick: Pass
Total: Over 195.5 points (-104)
